Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap Prediction

Look, I'll be straight with you — this fixture has me reaching for the braai before the whistle goes. De Graafschap are cooking up a storm, and Jong Ajax are burning the meat on the coals.

De Graafschap have won three of their last five — a 2–1 over Jong Utrecht at home on 9 October, a 1–0 against Den Bosch on 27 September, and a 2–1 at Emmen on 11 September. That's 2 points per game over that stretch, and they've scored in every single one of those five. Their away record over the last 20 games tells the same story: 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, with 1.65 goals scored per game. That's a side that travels well and keeps putting the ball in the net.

Jong Ajax, on the other hand, have lost three of their last five. The 0–3 home defeat to VVV Venlo on 9 October — with a red card in the 76th minute — still stings, and before that they were held to a 0–0 at home by Roda and lost 0–2 to Waalwijk. Over those five games they've scored just 2 goals and conceded 11. Three of those five saw them fail to score at all. Their home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses — 1 point per game — and they're conceding 1.85 per game at home.

The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings. The only one within the last 12 months was De Graafschap's 4–0 win at their own ground on 6 February. There's no recent meeting at Jong Ajax's ground, so we have to lean on current form and the venue records. The older meetings at this venue — a 2–2 draw and a 2–0 Jong Ajax win — are historical and don't carry the same weight.

Now, the counter-argument: Jong Ajax do have a history of getting results at home against De Graafschap in those older meetings, and the 0–0 draw with Roda on 18 September showed they can park the bus. De Graafschap's away record does include 7 losses in 20 games, and they lost 1–2 to NAC Breda at home on 20 September with a red card in the 63rd minute. So it's not a one-sided affair.

But the form gap is real. De Graafschap are averaging 1.6 goals per game in their last five, while Jong Ajax are averaging 0.4. De Graafschap's away scoring of 1.65 per game sits comfortably above Jong Ajax's home scoring of 1.4. And when you've got a side that's scored in 5 out of 5 recent games facing a side that's failed to score in 3 out of 5, the ball is rolling one way. My estimate puts De Graafschap winning at around 52%, which sits above the market's 44.44% view on the 2.25 price. That's a value I can get behind.

Key Points:

• De Graafschap: 3W 1D 1L in last 5, scoring in every game (8 goals, 6 conceded)

• Jong Ajax: 1W 1D 3L in last 5, failed to score in 3 of 5, conceded 11

• De Graafschap away record: 7W 6D 7L over 20 games, 1.65 scored per game

• Jong Ajax home record: 5W 5D 10L over 20 games, 1.85 conceded per game

• Only recent H2H meeting: De Graafschap 4–0 at their ground (6 February 2026)

My verdict: De Graafschap away win at 2.25.