Juve Stabia vs Avellino Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Juve Stabia and Avellino. Both sides are knocking about the top half of the table, but there's a right old tale of two forms here when you dig into the numbers.

Juve Stabia have been proper solid at home this season - unbeaten in their last four on their own patch with two wins and two draws. They're banging in two goals per game at home and only letting in half a goal on average. That's some fortress-like defending, mate. They had a bit of a blip last time out, getting stuffed 3-0 at Carrarese, but before that they were ticking along nicely.

Avellino, sitting pretty in 5th, have been decent overall but their away form is a bit hit and miss. Only one win in their last five on the road, and they're leaking 1.8 goals per game away from home. Mind you, they did put four past Carrarese in a 4-3 thriller, so they can definitely score on their travels.

When these two have met before, it's been Avellino who've had the edge overall, but at Juve Stabia's gaff, it's been much tighter - two wins each and a draw from five meetings.

Now here's where it gets interesting for us punters. Juve Stabia's home games are averaging 2.5 goals per game, while Avellino's away matches are seeing 3.2 goals per game on average. Both teams are scoring around 1.4 goals per game overall, and neither has been particularly tight at the back in recent matches.

The bookies have got the over 2.5 goals at 2.40, which looks pretty tasty given how both teams play. Juve Stabia are free-scoring at home, and Avellino are both scoring and conceding plenty on their travels. It's got all the ingredients for a proper goal-fest.

Key Points:

• Juve Stabia unbeaten in 4 home games (2W, 2D)

• Avellino averaging 3.2 total goals per away game

• Both teams scoring 1.4 goals per game overall

• Avellino leaking 1.8 goals per game on the road

• Last 5 H2H meetings have seen 4 games with over 2.5 goals

Given the attacking intent from both sides and Avellino's defensive vulnerabilities away from home, I'm backing this one to serve up plenty of goals. The over 2.5 at 2.40 looks like proper value to me.