Preview
Right, so Kalmar FF are hosting IF Brommapojkarna on 24 October in the Allsvenskan, and if you've been tracking Kalmar's last few outings, you'll know this one's got a bit of a puzzle to it.
The headline number that jumps out is Kalmar's scoring drought. In their last five matches, they've failed to score in four of them. Stretch that back to ten games and it's even worse — eight of ten, they've gone blank. Yes, they pulled off a 2–1 win at Degerfors IF on 19 October, which is their current run of one win, but before that it was 0–1 at Malmo FF, 0–0 at IFK Norrkoping, 0–5 at home to BK Hacken, and 0–1 at IF Elfsborg. That's a lot of zeros on the scoreline, and it's the kind of thing that makes you think about the "no" side of the both-teams-to-score market.
Now, when you look at the head-to-head at this very ground, Kalmar beat Brommapojkarna 2–0 back in June. And the other recent meeting, at Bromma's place in May, was 1–0 to Bromma. So in both of the last two meetings between these two sides, one team has gone home without finding the net. That's a pattern worth noting, and it lines up nicely with Kalmar's recent inability to score.
Kalmar's home record over 20 games is solid — 10 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses, 1.65 points per game, and they've kept four clean sheets. Their defence at home concedes 1.55 per game, which is better than Bromma's away defence at 2.05 per game. So the home base is real, even if the recent form has been a bit of a nightmare.
The counter-argument is that Brommapojkarna have been scoring. In their last five, they've netted nine times — including a wild 6–5 win at AIK Stockholm on 10 October. They've scored in three of their last five and in seven of their last ten. Their away record over 20 games shows 1.65 goals per game. So they're not a team that sits back and goes blank. And Kalmar did score in their last game, so the drought isn't absolute.
The market favours both teams to score, with an implied probability around 60%. But when you look at Kalmar's recent scoring — four blanks in five, eight blanks in ten — and the fact that both recent head-to-head meetings ended with one team scoreless, I think the "no" side of this market is the one with the edge. I'd put my own estimate around 52%, which sits comfortably above the market's 45% implied figure.
Key Points:
- Kalmar FF have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and 8 of their last 10
- Both recent head-to-head meetings (2–0 at Kalmar, 1–0 at Bromma) ended with one team scoreless
- Kalmar's home record: 10W 3D 7L in 20 games, 4 clean sheets, 1.55 conceded per game
- Brommapojkarna have scored in 3 of their last 5 and 7 of their last 10, but their away record is 7W 3D 10L
- Kalmar's last 10 shows only 1 BTTS yes out of 10
My pick: both teams not to score at 2.20.
