Preview
Right, so we've got Lillestrom hosting Molde on 11 October, and if you've been following the Eliteserien, you'll know Molde are in a bit of a groove. Four wins from their last five, 16 goals scored and just three conceded. That's 3.2 a game on the attack and 0.6 on the defence. In their last ten, they've won seven, drawn one and lost two, pumping in 38 goals. That's a side that's scoring for fun.
Now, Molde's away record over their last 20 games isn't the most glamorous — 7 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses — but their recent away outings have been something else. They went out and beat Trygg/Lade 5-0 and Ham-Kam 5-1 in the cup, and that's the kind of confidence that travels well. They've also kept clean sheets in 4 of those 20 away games and failed to score in only 3.
The head-to-head at this particular ground is a bit thin on the recent stuff. There's been no meeting at Lillestrom's ground in the last 12 months. The only recent one was back in April, at Molde's end, and Lillestrom snuck in a 1-0 away win. But if you go back to 2024, both times Molde visited here, they came away with 2-1 victories. And across the full 19 meetings going back to 2016, Molde have won 12, Lillestrom 4, with 3 draws. So historically, this is Molde's territory.
Lillestrom, for their part, have a home record of 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses from 20 games, scoring 2.25 a game and conceding 1.85. It's not a perfect home record, but it's a place where they do get results. Their last five has been a bit of a rollercoaster — a 5-1 cup thumping of Bærum, a 0-3 loss to Viking, a 1-2 Europa League defeat to Torreense, and a 2-0 home win over Valerenga. Three wins, two losses. They're capable of scoring, but the defence has been leaky at times.
The counter-argument is real. Lillestrom did beat Molde in April, and they've scored in 4 of their last 5. At home, they've had over 2.5 goals in 15 of their last 20. So this isn't a match where you expect a 0-0 grind. But the difference in recent form is hard to ignore. Molde have scored in every one of their last five games, conceded just three, and their xG numbers over five games show 2.16 for and 0.8 against. That's a side creating plenty and keeping it tight.
Key Points:
- Molde have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding just 3
- Molde's away record over 20 games: 7W 3D 10L, but recent away wins have been emphatic (5-0, 5-1)
- No meetings at Lillestrom's ground in the last 12 months; the 2024 visits both ended 2-1 for Molde
- Lillestrom's home record: 8W 3D 9L from 20, scoring 2.25 per game
- Molde's last 10: 7W 1D 2L, 3.8 goals per game, 0 failures to score
I'm going with the Molde away win at 2.19. The recent form is on their side, and the numbers just don't lie.
Match time