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Manchester City arrive at Anfield carrying the weight of three consecutive victories over Liverpool in the last 12 months — a 4–0 in the FA Cup at their own ground on 4 April, a 1–2 away win here on 8 February, and a 3–0 at their ground on 9 November. In those three meetings, City scored nine and conceded one. Their current run of five wins across all competitions, in which they have scored 14 and conceded 3, makes them the side to fear. Over their last 20 away games, Manchester City have recorded 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Their xG against in the three recent matches where that data is available sits at 0.49 per game, a figure that underscores how difficult it has been for opponents to break them down.
Liverpool, however, are no pushovers at home. Their record over 20 home games stands at 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, with 2.15 goals scored per game. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have won four and drawn one, scoring 8 and conceding just 2. The 0–0 draw with Fulham on 12 September showed a side capable of shutting the door, while the 3–1 League Cup win over Tottenham on 15 September and the 2–1 Champions League victory over Atletico Madrid on 9 September suggest the attack is firing. Liverpool's current run is two wins, in which they scored 4 and conceded 1.
The counter-case is straightforward: Liverpool lost the last meeting at this ground to Manchester City, the 1–2 in February, and the 0–0 with Fulham shows they can be blunt. City's away record, while strong, is not dominant: 12 wins from 20 games. Liverpool's home record of 11 wins from 20 tells you Anfield is not a place where the visitors walk in unchallenged. The head-to-head over the last 12 months is entirely in City's favour, but that is three games, and Liverpool's broader home record and recent form mean this is not a foregone conclusion.
Key Points:
- Manchester City have won all three recent meetings against Liverpool (4–0, 1–2, 3–0)
- City are on a five-match winning run, scoring 14 and conceding 3
- Liverpool have won four of their last five, with the remaining game a 0–0 home draw with Fulham
- Liverpool's home record: 11W 5D 4L over 20 games; City's away record: 12W 4D 4L over 20 games
- City's xG against in recent matches: 0.49 per game
Verdict: No Bet. The evidence points strongly to Manchester City, but Liverpool's home record and recent form mean the outcome is far from certain. If it's not certain, it's not happening.