Preview
PajimonPajimon here, and this one is a proper meaty fixture. Liverpool and Manchester City, Premier League, 11 October 2026. You can smell the braai smoke from here, and I'm not talking about politics — I'm talking about football.
Manchester City are in a state, and I don't mean the state of the braai. Five wins from their last five matches, 14 goals scored, 3 conceded. They beat Sunderland 5-3, Norwich 5-0, United 1-0 (with a red card to boot), Porto 2-0, and Coventry 1-0. Their last 10 tells the same story: 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 2.7 points per game. Their xG against in the last three games with data is 0.49 per game, while their xG for is 2.04 per game. The back line is tight and the front is cooking.
Now look at the head-to-head. In the last 12 months, Manchester City have won all three meetings against Liverpool. 4-0 at their ground in the FA Cup, 3-0 at their ground in November, and 1-2 at Liverpool's ground in February. Eight goals scored, two conceded. At Liverpool's ground specifically, the only recent meeting was that 1-2 loss for the hosts. The older meetings — a 2-0 Liverpool win in December 2024 and a 2-0 Liverpool win at City's ground in February 2025 — are historical record, not current form.
Liverpool, to their credit, are not sitting still. Four wins and a draw from their last five, 8 goals scored, 2 conceded. They won 3-1 against Tottenham in the League Cup, 2-1 against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, and 2-0 at Ipswich. Their home record over 20 games is 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, with 2.15 goals per game and 1.2 conceded per game. That's a solid base.
But here's the counter-argument, and I'll be honest: Liverpool's last home game was a 0-0 draw with Fulham. Their xG against in the last three games with data is 1.54 per game, compared to City's 0.49. The matchup table shows City's away record at 12 wins from 20 games with 2.0 points per game, edging Liverpool's home 1.9. City's latest 10 at 2.7 points per game is a clear step above Liverpool's 1.8. And City's away record shows 8 clean sheets from 20 games, while Liverpool's home record shows 6.
The scoring picture is interesting. Liverpool's ground has seen 12 of 20 games go over 2.5 goals, and 13 of 20 have both teams scoring. But City's away record shows 11 of 20 games with at least one team failing to score, and their last five has only one game where both sides found the net.
Key Points:
- Manchester City have won their last 5 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 3
- All 3 recent head-to-head meetings in the last 12 months went to Manchester City (8 goals scored, 2 conceded)
- Liverpool's home record is 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, but their last home game was a 0-0 draw
- City's xG against is 0.49 per game in recent data; Liverpool's xG against is 1.54 per game
- The market prices Manchester City at 2.67 (37.45% implied), but the form and head-to-head tell a stronger story
My read: Manchester City away win.