Preview
Mr SimpleRight, it's the big one. Liverpool host Manchester City on 11 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one has a clear lean.
Manchester City have been absolutely relentless. Five wins from five, 14 goals scored, just 3 conceded. That's a run that's hard to ignore. Their away record over the last 20 games tells the same story: 12 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 2.0 points per game, and 8 clean sheets in that stretch. Their xG against over the last three games with data is 0.49 per game, which is a sign they're keeping things tight at the back. In their last 10 across all venues, they've won 9, drawn none, and lost just one, scoring 2.6 per game.
Now look at the head-to-head. In the last 12 months, Manchester City have won all three meetings. The FA Cup tie at their ground was 4–0, the reverse fixture at Liverpool's ground was 1–2, and the November game at City's end was 3–0. At Liverpool's ground specifically, the only recent meeting was that 1–2 loss. The older meetings — a 2–0 and a 0–2 — are historical and don't really factor into the current picture.
Liverpool, to their credit, are in decent shape. Four wins and a draw from their last five, 8 goals scored and just 2 conceded. Their home record over 20 games is 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, with 2.15 goals per game. They've won their last two, scoring 4 and conceding 1. That's a solid run, and the 3–1 over Tottenham at home on 15 September showed they can be sharp up front.
But here's the counter-argument: Liverpool's last 10 across all venues includes 2 losses and 3 draws, and their points per game (1.8) sits well below City's 2.7. The 0–0 with Fulham at home on 12 September showed they can go quiet, and the 1–2 to City in February was a reminder that this fixture has a habit of going City's way. Liverpool's xG against over their last three games with data is 1.54 per game, which isn't the most reassuring number when you're facing a side that's scored 14 in five.
The market has this priced almost level — Liverpool at 2.65 (37.74%) and City at 2.67 (37.45%). But the football evidence doesn't back up that evenness. City's 5-game winning run, their 3-0 head-to-head record in the last year, and their tight away defence all point the same way. I'd put City's chances at around 45%, which sits comfortably above the market's 37.45%.
Key Points:
- Manchester City have won all 3 recent head-to-head meetings (4–0, 1–2, 3–0)
- City are on a 5-game winning run, scoring 14 and conceding 3
- Liverpool's only recent home meeting with City (February) ended 1–2
- City's away record: 12W 4D 4L over 20 games, 8 clean sheets
- Liverpool's last 10 includes 2 losses and 3 draws; City's last 10 is 9W 0D 1L
Verdict: I'm going with the Manchester City away win at 2.67. The form, the head-to-head, and the defensive numbers all point the same way.