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The most telling story in this fixture is the gap between Cuiaba's defensive record and Londrina's recent struggles. Cuiaba have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Londrina have failed to keep a single clean sheet in the same stretch and are leaking two goals per game. Over their last ten games across all venues, Cuiaba have conceded 0.9 per game compared to Londrina's 1.5, and Cuiaba have won four of those ten to Londrina's two.
Cuiaba's away record over 20 games tells a quieter but consistent story. Fourteen of those 20 finished under 2.5 goals, and 13 of 20 saw at least one team fail to score. Their last five matches all ended with at least one side blank, including a 0-1 loss to Avai at home on 11 October and a 0-0 draw at Vila Nova on 7 October. Londrina, by contrast, have been involved in three of their last five games that went over 2.5 goals, and their home record over 20 games splits evenly at 10 over and 10 under.
The head-to-head is thin on recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 2-2 draw at Cuiaba's ground on 25 June. The older meetings from 2019, where Londrina won both, are historical record and do not reflect current form. With just one recent meeting, the head-to-head offers little beyond that draw.
The counter-argument is that Cuiaba's away record is far from dominant. Over 20 away games they have won only four, drawn eight and lost eight, scoring just 0.7 per game. They have failed to score in 12 of those 20 away matches. Londrina at home, over 20 games, have scored 1.3 per game and won five. The 2-2 draw in June also suggests these two sides can produce open games. Cuiaba's last result was a 0-1 defeat, and they have lost two of their last five.
Key Points:
- Cuiaba have kept three clean sheets in five games and conceded 0.8 per game; Londrina have kept zero clean sheets and conceded 2 per game.
- Cuiaba's last five matches all ended with at least one team failing to score; their away record shows 13 of 20 BTTS no.
- Londrina have won 0 of their last 5, with 4 losses; Cuiaba have won 2 of their last 5.
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (25 June) was a 2-2 draw; older meetings are historical.
- Cuiaba's away record is inconsistent: 4W 8D 8L over 20 games, scoring 0.7 per game.
No Bet. The football points to Cuiaba as the stronger side, but no single outcome in this fixture carries a probability I would rate high enough to stake on with the certainty I demand. The match is too open, and the available prices do not offer a stake I can back with confidence.
