Mallorca vs Las Palmas Prediction

Right, so Mallorca are hosting Las Palmas on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Mallorca at home are the real deal. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 13, drawn 3 and lost 4 — 2.1 points per game. They score 2.1 a game at home and concede just 0.85, keeping 7 clean sheets in that stretch. That's a home record that makes you feel safe. Their recent form is solid too: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last five, with just 1 goal conceded across those games.

Las Palmas on the road, though, are a different story. Their last 20 away games have produced 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses — 1.4 points per game. They score 1.45 a game away but concede 1.7, and they've only kept 3 clean sheets in 20. That's a team that's leaking goals on the road, and it's not a good look when you're visiting a side that's keeping 7 clean sheets in 20 at home. Their recent form is poor: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in the last five, with 7 goals conceded in that stretch.

Now, the head-to-head is entirely historical — the most recent meeting was back in February 2025, and the five listed go back as far as 2021. So I can't use it as current form. But what it does show is that Mallorca won both meetings at their ground (3-1 and 1-0), and Las Palmas haven't won at this venue in the five listed.

The one concern for Mallorca is their recent scoring. They've failed to score in 3 of their last 5 games, including two 0-0 draws. That's a pattern that could bite them here, especially against a Las Palmas side that has scored in 4 of their last 5. It's the kind of thing that keeps you on edge — you know the home side are strong, but if they can't find the net, the draw or an upset is always lurking.

Key Points:

• Mallorca's home record: 13W 3D 4L in 20 games, 2.1 PPG, 0.85 conceded per game

• Las Palmas' away record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games, 1.4 PPG, 1.7 conceded per game

• Mallorca's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, 1 goal conceded, 3/5 failed to score

• Las Palmas' last 5: 1W 2D 2L, 7 goals conceded

• Head-to-head is historical (most recent meeting 20 months before kickoff); Mallorca won both at their ground

No bet. Mallorca's home record and recent form make them the clear favourites, but their 3/5 failed-to-score pattern in recent games keeps my confidence below the level needed to back the 1.62 price. No other market offers a clear edge at the available prices.