Preview
PajimonManchester City walk into this one with the kind of form that makes you want to crack open a cold one and just watch them chop up another team like they're prepping meat for the braai. Five wins in a row, 16 goals scored and just 3 conceded across their last five matches - that's not a run, that's a statement. The 3-0 at Liverpool on 11 October, the 5-3 at home against Sunderland, the 5-0 over Norwich, the 1-0 at United and the 2-0 at Porto - every single one of those is a win, and the goals are coming in buckets.
At home, the numbers are even more telling. In 20 home games, Manchester City have won 16, drawn 2 and lost 2, scoring 2.45 per game and conceding just 0.8. Nine clean sheets in that stretch. Their xG against in recent matches sits at 0.61 per game, which means the opposition is basically knocking on a locked door and hoping for a crack in the wood. Ipswich's away record in 20 games is 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, with 1.55 goals conceded per game. Their xG against in recent matches is 2.4 per game - that's a leaky bucket if you've ever tried to keep a braai lid on in a South African wind.
The head-to-head is dated. The last two meetings were 21 months and 2 years ago, both won by City - 4-1 at home and 6-0 at Ipswich's ground. So we can't lean on that as current form, but it does paint a picture of how this matchup has played out when these two have met.
Now, the counter-argument. Ipswich did beat Fulham 2-1 at home on 10 October, and they've won 6 of their last 10 across all venues. Eight of those last 10 went over 2.5 goals, so there's a case that this could be a goal-fest. But their away defence is the real concern - 1.55 conceded per game, and City's xG against of 0.61 per game suggests Ipswich will struggle to find the back of the net. City have only had both teams score in 1 of their last 5, and 4 of those 5 were clean sheets.
Key Points:
- Manchester City have won their last 5 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 3
- City's home record: 16W 2D 2L in 20 games, 2.45 scored per game, 0.8 conceded per game
- Ipswich's away record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, 1.55 conceded per game
- City's xG against in recent games: 0.61 per game; Ipswich's xG against: 2.4 per game
- Head-to-head is historical (2 meetings, both City wins: 4-1 and 6-0)
My verdict: Manchester City home win.