Modena vs Cesena Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint, because we've got a proper Serie B scrap coming up on Saturday evening. Modena are hosting Cesena, and if the numbers are anything to go by, the home side should be fancying their chances to get back on track after a couple of dodgy results.

Now, Modena sit pretty in 6th spot with 43 points, while Cesena are lurking down in 8th with 38. But it's the recent form that tells the real story here, mate. Modena might have lost their last two – a 2-1 slip-up at Virtus Entella and a 1-2 home defeat to Padova – but don't let that fool ya. Before that blip, they were on fire! They nicked a 2-0 win away at league leaders Venezia, beat Juve Stabia 2-1 on the road, and saw off Carrarese 2-0 at home. That's proper quality against top-half sides.

Cesena, on the other hand, are having a bit of a nightmare. They've only won two of their last ten – and one of those was against bottom-of-the-table Pescara. They've lost seven of those ten games, shipping 21 goals in the process. That's bleeding two goals a game! They got hammered 4-0 by Venezia recently and lost 3-1 to both Monza and Virtus Entella. Their defence is leakier than a sieve at the moment.

Looking at the head-to-head, Modena have got the edge when playing at home against Cesena – winning two out of three and drawing the other. The last time these two met back in November, Cesena nicked it 1-0, but historically Modena own this fixture on their own patch.

The stats show Modena are solid at the back too – five clean sheets in their last ten games and conceding just 0.9 goals per game on average. Cesena? Just one clean sheet in ten and conceding over two a game. Even though Modena's home form looks a bit patchy on paper (25% win rate in last four), Cesena's away record isn't much better at 25%, and they're conceding two goals a game on their travels.

The bookies have Modena at 1.80 to win, which looks about right but there's definitely value there when you consider Cesena's current struggles. With Modena creating chances (14.5 shots per game) and Cesena shipping goals for fun, the home win looks the smart play.

Key Points:

• Modena have won 4 of their last 10, including impressive victories away at Venezia (2-0) and Juve Stabia (2-1)

• Cesena have lost 7 of their last 10 matches, conceding 21 goals (2.1 per game) with just one clean sheet

• Modena have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games, conceding only 0.9 goals per game on average

• Head-to-head history favours Modena at home with a 66.67% win rate against Cesena

• Cesena's away form shows they concede 2 goals per game on average in their last 4 away matches

Summary:

Cesena are in a proper rut and Modena, despite those two recent losses, have shown they can mix it with the best in this division. Back the home side to get the job done at 1.80 – it's not stealing money, but it's solid value.