Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction

Motherwell host Celtic on 11 October in the Premiership, and I have to say, the little dog at Fir Park has a genuine case here that the market isn't fully pricing in.

Celtic arrive in the midst of a genuinely poor stretch. They have lost their last three matches, scoring just one goal and conceding seven across that run. The defeats include a 0–1 home loss to Rangers on 20 September, a 1–3 home defeat to Ferencvarosi TC in the Europa League on 17 September, and a 0–3 away loss to Rangers in the League Cup on 13 September. Even their two wins in the last five — 1–0 at ST Johnstone and 2–1 at ST Mirren — were both narrow.

Motherwell, by contrast, have their own struggles. A 0–4 home defeat to Aberdeen on 15 September and losses at Dundee and Rangers mean they have lost their last three, scoring one and conceding seven. That is a concerning run, and the 0–4 scoreline at home is a real worry for the underdog.

But the longer home record at Fir Park tells a different story. Over 20 home games from 2025-12-06 to 2026-09-15, Motherwell have won 11, drawn 4 and lost 5, averaging 1.85 points per game. They concede just 0.95 goals per game at home and have kept 13 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. Celtic's away record over 20 games from 2025-01-18 to 2026-09-13 shows 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, but they concede 1.45 goals per game away and have kept only 5 clean sheets in 20.

The head-to-head at Motherwell's ground in the last 12 months gives two meetings: Celtic won 3–2 in May 2026, and Motherwell won 2–0 in December 2025. The split is even, and the little dog has a win in the bag at this venue.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Motherwell's last three games have been losses, and the 0–4 home defeat to Aberdeen three weeks ago is a genuine worry. Their latest 10 games show 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses at 0.9 points per game, while Celtic's latest 10 show 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses at 1.8 points per game. The odds on the visitors reflect Celtic's structural away record, which remains solid.

Key Points:

• Celtic have lost their last three matches, scoring just one goal and conceding seven

• Motherwell's home record over 20 games: 11 wins, 0.95 goals conceded per game, 13 clean sheets

• Celtic's away record over 20 games: 11 wins, but 1.45 goals conceded per game and only 5 clean sheets

• Recent head-to-head at Motherwell's ground: 1 win each in the last two meetings

• Both teams are in poor recent form, but Motherwell's structural home record offers underdog value

My pick: Motherwell home win at 5.0.