Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction

Right, so we've got Motherwell hosting Celtic on 11 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a bit of a twist to it.

Both sides are on three-game losing runs, which is unusual for a fixture like this. Motherwell have lost their last three — 1-2 at Dundee, 0-4 at home to Aberdeen, and 0-1 at Rangers — scoring just one goal in the process. Celtic haven't won their last three either, dropping 0-1 to Rangers at home, 1-3 to Ferencvarosi in the Europa League, and 0-3 at Rangers in the League Cup. So here we are, two teams that haven't won in a fortnight about to meet.

Now, the head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months is split. Motherwell beat Celtic 2-0 back in December, but Celtic came back in May and won 2-3. One win each, no draws. At Celtic's ground, Celtic won 3-1 in March. So the recent meetings say Celtic are the stronger side, but Motherwell have shown they can handle them at home.

Looking at the wider records, Celtic's away form over 20 games is 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses — 1.9 points per game, scoring 1.8 a game. Motherwell at home over 20 games: 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses — 1.85 points per game, but the big number here is the defence. Motherwell have kept 13 clean sheets in 20 home games and conceded just 0.95 per game. Celtic away have only managed 5 clean sheets in 20 and conceded 1.45 per game. That's a real difference.

The last 10 games tell the story too. Celtic: 6 wins, 4 losses, 1.8 points per game. Motherwell: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, 0.9 points per game. That's a gap. But I'd stress — those 10 games include Celtic's three most recent defeats, so the form is not as clean as the record suggests.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Celtic are the better team. They've won 2 of the last 3 meetings, they score more per game away (1.8 vs 1.7), and their points per game away is higher. The market agrees, pricing Celtic at 1.65 with a 60.61% implied probability.

But here's the thing — both teams are in a bit of a rut. Motherwell's home defence is still solid even in this run of form, and the head-to-head at this ground is genuinely split. A 2-0 win for Motherwell in December and a 2-3 loss in May show that neither side has a stranglehold.

Key Points:

• Both Motherwell and Celtic are on three-game losing runs, scoring just 1 goal each in those games

• The head-to-head at Motherwell's ground in the last 12 months is split: 2-0 to Motherwell in December, 2-3 to Celtic in May

• Motherwell's home defence is the standout record: 13 clean sheets in 20 home games, conceding 0.95 per game

• Celtic's away record is strong (11W 5D 4L in 20) but their last three results include a 0-3 loss to Rangers

• The market prices Celtic at 1.65 (60.61%), but the split H2H and both teams' poor form make this tighter than the price suggests

My verdict: I'm going with the draw at 4.60. Both teams are in a bit of a mess, Motherwell's home defence is still ticking, and the head-to-head at this ground is genuinely even. It's not a massive call, but the numbers back a level scoreline.