Preview
OracleThere is a truth in football that the young do not yet understand: that the strongest walls are not the ones that hold, but the ones that have been tested by the current so many times that they have learned to bend. Necaxa and Atlas, meeting at the home ground of the former in Liga MX, present exactly such a truth.
I have watched this sport for longer than most of you have been alive. And in all those years, I have learned that the question of who wins is often less important than the question of whether the net will rattle on both sides. In this fixture, the answer is written in the numbers like a prophecy in stone.
Atlas have found the net in every one of their last five matches. Five of five. Not a single game where they failed to breach the opposition's line. They beat Club Tijuana 3–2 on 26 September, drew 1–1 with Guadalajara Chivas on 11 October, and the pattern stretches back further still. Over their last ten games, eight of those ten have seen both teams on the scoresheet. On the road, across twenty away fixtures, nine of those twenty have produced goals from both sides.
Necaxa, too, are not strangers to the scoresheet. They have scored in four of their last five matches, the sole exception being a 0–1 defeat to Puebla at home on 12 September. Across their last ten games in all venues, nine of those ten have seen both teams find the net. And here is the detail that matters most: they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches. Twelve goals conceded in that span. Two and a quarter per game. The wall is thin, and the river finds its way through.
The head-to-head confirms what the individual form suggests. Across twenty-two meetings stretching back to 2016, both teams have scored in twelve of those twenty-two. The three most recent encounters within the last twelve months tell a mixed story — a 0–0 at Atlas's ground in July, a 0–1 at Necaxa's ground in January, and a 5–3 at Atlas's ground in December. Two of those three were tight. But the 5–3 was a goal-fest, and the broader pattern across the full record is one of mutual scoring.
Now, I must speak of the counter-argument, for wisdom demands that we weigh both sides of the scale. Necaxa's home record over twenty games is respectable: eight wins, three draws, nine losses, conceding just 1.25 per game. Atlas's away record over twenty games is less comfortable: eight wins, one draw, eleven losses, conceding 1.75 per game. There is a case that the home side's defensive discipline could produce a quiet evening.
But I have seen enough seasons to know that a single clean sheet, or two, does not rewrite the current. Necaxa's last two home fixtures produced four and one goals conceded respectively. Their defensive record in the last five matches — zero clean sheets — tells a different story than the twenty-game average. And Atlas, a side that has scored in every one of its last five games, will not be easily shut out.
The market prices this at 1.62, implying roughly a 62% chance. My own reading of the evidence places the probability closer to 70%. The odds are fair, perhaps even generous, for a side that has scored in five consecutive matches facing a side that has not kept a clean sheet in five.
Key Points:
- Atlas have scored in all five of their last five matches; Necaxa in four of five
- Neither team has kept a clean sheet in their last five games
- Both teams' last ten games show BTTS in 9 and 8 of 10 respectively
- Head-to-head: 12 of 22 meetings have seen both teams score
- Necaxa's home defensive record (1.25 conceded per game over 20) is the main counter-argument, but recent form tells a different story
The river flows both ways in this one. My tip is Both Teams To Score: Yes at 1.62.