Newcastle vs Everton Prediction

Alright, settle down with your pint – we've got a Saturday afternoon cracker at St James' Park that could go either way, and I'm not just saying that to be polite. Newcastle welcome Everton in a clash of two sides separated by just a single point in the table, and with both teams having very different ideas about how to play football right now.

The Toon Army are buzzing after that 3-2 Champions League win over Qarabag on Tuesday, making it three wins from their last four in all competitions. They've beaten Aston Villa 3-1 in the cup and Spurs 2-1 on the road recently, so the attack is firing with 20 goals in their last ten games. But here's the rub – that's their fourth game in a fortnight, and the tank might be running low. Especially when you look at their home record – they've shipped 2.33 goals per game in their last three at St James', including that 2-3 thriller against Brentford and a 0-2 pasting by Villa. They score for fun (1.67 per game at home), but they couldn't keep a clean sheet if their lives depended on it – zero clean sheets in the last ten across all competitions.

Now, the Toffees are a funny old team. Their home form is shocking – not a single win in their last six at Goodison – but get them on the bus and they're like a different animal. Won three of their last four away days, including a cheeky 1-0 at Villa and a 2-0 at Forest, plus that 2-1 win at Fulham. They're tighter than a drum on the road, conceding just 0.5 per game in those four trips, though they did let one in against Fulham and Brighton in a 1-1 draw. They've had a full five days' kip since that 0-1 loss to United, so they'll be fresh as daisies while Newcastle are still rubbing their eyes.

Newcastle have the edge historically – they stuffed Everton 4-1 back in November – but the Toffees have been tricky customers in this fixture over the years. With the Magpies' games averaging four goals a pop and Everton showing they can both score and keep things tight on their travels, this has the makings of a proper end-to-end affair.

Key Points:

• Newcastle's last 10 games averaging 4 goals per game (20 scored, 20 conceded)

• Everton unbeaten in last 4 away trips (3 wins, 1 draw) conceding just 2 goals total

• Magpies have kept zero clean sheets in last 10 matches (90% BTTS rate)

• Toffees have kept clean sheets in 3 of last 4 away games

• Newcastle playing their 4th game in 14 days vs Everton's 1st in 5 days

• Last meeting ended 4-1 to Newcastle in November

The odds compilers have Newcastle at 1.73, which looks a bit skinny to me given their defensive leaks and tired legs. Everton at 4.50 is tempting with their away record, but they've lost their last two and might be happy with a point. For me, the value is in both teams finding the net. Newcastle's games are goal-fests – 90% of their last ten have seen both teams score – and while Everton are solid away, they've still conceded in half their recent road trips. At 1.70, Both Teams to Score is the play.