Northampton vs Burton Albion Prediction

It's squeaky bum time down at the bottom of League One, and Northampton are right in the thick of it. Sitting 23rd with just 35 points from 36 games, the Cobblers are five points adrift of safety and need to start turning draws into wins sharpish. Burton Albion roll into town sitting pretty(ish) in 17th, five points clear of the drop zone, but don't let that fool ya – their away form is about as convincing as a chocolate teapot.

Northampton's recent record reads like a tale of woe at first glance – four defeats in their last five league outings including a proper pasting at league leaders Lincoln (4-0) and a narrow 1-0 defeat at AFC Wimbledon last time out. But dig a little deeper and there's shoots of hope. That 3-1 thumping of playoff-chasing Stevenage at home shows they can mix it with the better sides, and the boffins reckon their underlying trends are actually improving despite the results. At home they're averaging 1.25 goals a game and creating over 10 shots per match – not exactly Brazil '70, but enough to cause problems against a shaky defence.

Burton, meanwhile, are on the slide. The numbers say they're declining across the board, and their away day record is dire – winless in their last four on the road with three draws and a defeat at Wycombe (3-0). They're leaking 1.75 goals per game away from home and while they did smash high-flying Stockport 3-0 recently, that was on their own patch. On their travels, they've been drawing games they should be winning against the likes of Exeter and Luton, but they struggle to put teams away.

The elephant in the room is that 5-1 drubbing Burton handed out on Boxing Day. Northampton will be desperate for revenge, and at 2.62 for the home win, the bookies might be overreacting to that one result given current form. Burton's lack of away wins and Northampton's desperation – plus those improving underlying metrics and the goal expectancy favouring the hosts at 1.50 vs 1.12 – makes the Cobblers look overpriced for a massive six-pointer.

Key Points:

• Northampton are five points from safety and desperate for a win at home

• Burton are winless in their last four away games (D3 L1), conceding 1.75 goals per game on the road

• The Cobblers beat 8th-placed Stevenage 3-1 at home recently, showing they can rise to the occasion

• Burton's 5-1 win in the reverse fixture in December looks like an outlier given their current away struggles

• Goal expectancies suggest a tight game but marginally favour Northampton at 1.50 vs 1.12

Summary: Northampton look big at 2.62 given Burton's travel sickness and the hosts' desperation. Back the Cobblers to get a massive three points in their fight for survival.