Preview
Palmeiras host Corinthians on 11 October in Serie A, and the numbers tell a clear story. At home over the last 20 games, Palmeiras have won 14, drawn 4 and lost just 2, scoring 1.7 goals per game while conceding only 0.55. That is a record that leaves little room for doubt. Their last two home fixtures — a 2–0 win over Sao Paulo on 12 September and a 1–0 victory over LDU de Quito on 9 September — show a side that is comfortable and controlled in front of their own fans.
Corinthians, by contrast, are in the midst of a genuine slump. Their last four matches have all ended in defeat, with the team scoring just 3 goals and conceding 8. The 1–2 loss to Internacional on 7 October, the 1–3 home defeat to Fluminense on 20 September, the 0–1 loss to Estudiantes on 17 September and the 1–2 loss to Flamengo on 13 September paint a picture of a side struggling on both ends of the pitch. Over their last 20 away games, Corinthians have won only 4, drawn 9 and lost 7, averaging 1.05 points per game and conceding 1.15 per game. Their clean-sheet record on the road is 6 out of 20, and they have failed to score in 4 of those 20 trips.
The head-to-head adds useful context. The two most recent meetings, both at Corinthians's ground, produced a 0–0 draw in April and a 0–1 Palmeiras win in February. There have been no meetings at Palmeiras's ground within the last 12 months, so the venue-specific history is limited. The older meeting at this ground — a 0–2 Corinthians win in August 2025 — is historical and does not reflect current form.
The counter-argument is that Corinthians' recent games have been higher-scoring — three of their last five went over 2.5 goals — and that Palmeiras' last two away matches were scoreless draws. There is also the fact that Corinthians' away record includes 9 draws, meaning they do not always lose badly. However, the four-game losing streak and the 0.75 goals-per-game scoring rate in that stretch make it hard to build a case for an away upset. Palmeiras' last 10 games across all venues show 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, with 7 clean sheets, while Corinthians' last 10 show 1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses with just 1 clean sheet.
Key Points:
- Palmeiras are 14W 4D 2L at home over 20 games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game
- Corinthians have lost their last 4 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 8
- Corinthians' away record over 20 games: 4W 9D 7L, 1.05 points per game
- Recent head-to-head meetings were low-scoring: 0–0 and 0–1
- Palmeiras' last two home games were clean-sheet wins (2–0 and 1–0)
The evidence points firmly to the hosts. I'm backing the Palmeiras home win at 1.56.
Match time