Pineto vs Gubbio Prediction

Pineto vs Gubbio. Serie C, Girone B. 23 October. And if you've been following Gubbio's last five games, you'll want to grab a seat, because this side has been through the wringer.

Five losses. Five in a row. One goal scored. Eleven conceded. That's the Gubbio story right now, and it's not a pretty one. They've been beaten 0-2 by Atalanta II at home, 0-2 by Spezia on the road, 1-3 by Perugia at home, 0-2 by Ravenna away, and 0-2 by Ostia Mare at home. Four of those five, they didn't even manage a goal. The last time Gubbio put the ball in the net was against Perugia on 3 October, and even then it was just one. The current run — five straight defeats, one goal, eleven conceded — is the kind of stretch that makes a manager reach for the deepest parts of the dressing room.

Now, Pineto at home. They're not flying, but they're not falling either. Their last five is 1W 2D 2L, and the most recent result — on 20 October, three days before this one — was a 2-0 win over Reggiana at their own ground. That's the kind of confidence you want heading into a fixture like this. Over 20 home games, Pineto have won 7, drawn 6 and lost 7, averaging 1.35 points per game and scoring 1.1 a game. Not a dominant record, but a solid enough base to build on.

The head-to-head at Pineto's ground tells a similar story. In the three recent meetings here, Pineto have won two and lost one. The scores were 1-2, 2-1 and 1-0 — tight, competitive games, but the hosts have had the edge. Gubbio's one win at this ground in the recent meetings was back on 14 August, a 2-1 in the Coppa Italia. The other meeting at Gubbio's ground in that window was a 2-0 Gubbio win on 26 April.

Gubbio's away record over 20 games is 5W 6D 9L, 1.05 points per game. They've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away trips, and their goals per game on the road is just 0.75. Against a Pineto side that just kept a clean sheet at home, that's a tough ask.

The counter-argument? Pineto lost 0-4 to Grosseto at home on 26 September, and Gubbio did win the most recent H2H at this ground. Pineto's form is patchy — two draws and two losses in the last five — and they've failed to score in three of those five. So this isn't a team in full flight. And Gubbio, for all their misery, did score in their last home game against Perugia, so they're not completely toothless.

But the weight of evidence here is heavy. Gubbio are in a real slump — five straight defeats, one goal in the bag, and an away record that's been poor over the last 20 games. Pineto are at home, fresh off a win, and the head-to-head at this ground leans their way. The market prices Pineto at 1.91, which implies about 52% chance. I'd put it a touch higher, around 56%, given what Gubbio are going through. That's a small but real edge.

Key Points:

• Gubbio have lost their last five, scoring just one goal and conceding 11

• Pineto won 2-0 at home on 20 October and hold a 2W 0D 1L record at this ground in recent H2H

• Gubbio have failed to score in 10 of their last 20 away games

• Pineto's home record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games, 1.35 points per game

• Gubbio's away record: 5W 6D 9L in 20 games, 1.05 points per game

Verdict: Pineto home win.