Preview
Pineto take on Gubbio on 23 October in Serie C Girone B, and mate, the form on show here is something else. Gubbio have lost their last five matches on the spin, scoring just one goal and conceding 11 in the process. That is a team that has gone quiet off the ball and leaked goals like a cracked pipe. Four of those five defeats came without Gubbio finding the net at all, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of them. Their last five dates run from 20 September to 18 October, and the pattern is brutal: 0–2 to Ostia Mare, 0–2 to Ravenna, 1–3 to Perugia, 0–2 to Spezia, and 0–2 to Atalanta II.
Pineto, by contrast, came into this fixture with a 2–0 win over Reggiana at home on 20 October. Their overall form over the last five games is mixed — one win, two draws and two losses — but the home record over 20 games tells a steadier story: 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, with 1.1 goals scored per game. Gubbio's away record over 20 games sits at 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, with just 0.75 goals per game. Pineto score more and Gubbio concede less, which is a nice little combination when you are the home side. Gubbio also failed to score in 10 of those 20 away games, which tells you how often they turn up without a threat.
The head-to-head at Pineto's ground over the last three meetings gives the hosts a 2–1 edge. Pineto won 2–1 in May and 1–0 in December, while Gubbio snatched a 1–2 in August. So the pattern at this venue leans home, though Gubbio did pull off the most recent meeting. The meeting at Gubbio's ground in April ended 2–0 to Gubbio, but that was on their home turf and does not tell you as much about how this fixture will play out at Pineto's ground.
The counter-argument is that Pineto are not exactly flying. They lost 0–4 to Grosseto at home on 26 September, and their last five games include two defeats and two draws. Gubbio did beat them in August, and the market has the draw at 3.3, which suggests there is a real chance of a stalemate. But a team that has scored 0.2 goals per game over its last five outings and conceded 2.2 per game is not in a position to dictate terms at a side that just won at home. Pineto's 2–0 win three days ago shows they can be clinical, and Gubbio's inability to score in four of five games makes a clean sheet for the hosts a very live possibility.
Key Points:
- Gubbio are on a five-game losing streak, scoring 1 goal and conceding 11 in that span
- Pineto won their last home game 2–0 and hold a 2–1 edge in the last three meetings at this ground
- Pineto's home record (7W 6D 7L in 20) outperforms Gubbio's away record (5W 6D 9L in 20)
- Gubbio failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them
- Pineto's recent form is mixed, with a 0–4 home defeat to Grosseto on 26 September
My pick: Pineto home win at 1.91.
