Preview
Lanus come into this one at Platense's ground on 17 October with the kind of form that makes you want to crack open a cold one before the match even kicks off. Four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring eight and conceding just one goal. That 2–0 over Velez Sarsfield on 12 October and the 3–0 away hammering of Deportivo Riestra on 14 September show a side that's clicking on both ends. Their xG numbers back it up too — 1.53 per game over eight matches with 13 actual goals on the board. You can't argue with that, mate.
Platense, on the other hand, are stuck in the middle. Two wins, two draws and a loss in their last five, and they've drawn their last two games. At home over 20 games they've only won 4 times, drawing 10 of them. Their xG for is 0.77 per game over three matches, with just one actual goal in those games. They're struggling to score, and they're not winning at home. It's like trying to get meat out of a vegetable — you just don't get the satisfaction.
The head-to-head is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 0–0 at Lanus's ground back in April. The older games show Lanus winning 2 of 3 at their own ground and a 0–0 at Platense's. So there's no clear pattern to lean on from the fixture history, and I'd rather trust what these teams are doing right now than what they did two years ago.
The counter-argument is Lanus's away record. Over 20 away games they've only won 5, drawing 3 and losing 12. Their away points per game is 0.9, which sits below Platense's home 1.1. And that 0–0 draw between these two teams at Lanus's ground in April reminds you that Platense can grind out a result even on the road. It's not nothing.
But the form gap is hard to ignore. Lanus are averaging 1.4 goals per game over their last 10 and conceding just 0.8. Platense are averaging 0.9 scored and 1.2 conceded over the same stretch. The xG gap is even starker — 1.53 to 0.77 in Lanus's favour. When a team is scoring at that rate and keeping clean sheets four out of five times, you've got to give them the edge, even on the road.
Key Points:
- Lanus: 4W 1D 0L in last 5, 8 scored, 1 conceded
- Platense: 2W 4D 4L in last 10, 1.0 PPG
- Lanus xG for: 1.53 per game (8 games); Platense xG for: 0.77 per game (3 games)
- Lanus away record: 5W 3D 12L in 20 games
- Recent H2H: 0–0 draw at Lanus's ground (April 2026)
My pick: Lanus away win.
