Platense vs Lanus Prediction

Right, so we've got Platense hosting Lanus on 17 October in the Liga Profesional Argentina, and if you've been following the form books, the visitors are the ones to watch.

Lanus have been absolutely flying. Four wins and a draw from their last five, scoring eight goals and conceding just one. That's a points-per-game of 2.6, which is a hell of a stretch. They've won 5 of their last 10 across all venues, and their xG numbers back it up — 1.53 per game for, 1.02 per game against. They've kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5. The 2-0 over Velez Sarsfield on 12 October and the 3-0 away at Deportivo Riestra on 14 September show they've got the edge in both attack and defence. In their last 10, they've scored 1.4 per game and conceded 0.8, with 5 clean sheets out of 10.

Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be fair — Lanus's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 3 draws, 12 losses. That's a lot of defeats on the road, and it's the one thing that gives me pause. And Platense at home? Well, they've drawn 10 of their last 20 at their own ground. Four wins, ten draws, six losses. Their current run is two draws, and they've drawn 2 of their last 5. So there's a real chance this ends level. The only recent head-to-head meeting — back in April at Lanus's ground — was a 0-0, and the older meetings stretch back two years, so I can't lean on those too heavily. The head-to-head is dated, and I'm leaning on current form.

But here's the thing: Lanus's recent away form is better than that 20-game record suggests. They've won 3-0 at Riestra and drawn 0-0 at Newells in their last two away trips. And Platense's home xG is telling — 0.77 per game for, 0.8 per game against. They're not creating much and they're not keeping it out. Lanus's xG numbers sit at 1.53 for and 1.02 against, which is a clear step above what Platense are producing at home.

The market has Lanus at 2.84, which implies about 35%. I think the form says they're better than that. I'd put their chances closer to 42%, which gives us a bit of value on the price. The draw is a real possibility given Platense's home record, but the quality of Lanus's recent output — the goals, the clean sheets, the xG — tips this the visitors' way.

Key Points:

• Lanus: 4W 1D 0L in last 5, 8 scored, 1 conceded; 5W 2D 3L in last 10

• Platense home: 4W 10D 6L in 20 games — heavily draw-prone

• Lanus away record: 5W 3D 12L in 20, but recent away form is improving

• Recent H2H: 0-0 draw in April; older meetings are historical only

• Lanus xG: 1.53 for, 1.02 against vs Platense home xG: 0.77 for, 0.8 against

My pick: Lanus away win at 2.84.