Port Vale vs Plymouth Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this basement battle down at Vale Park. Two sides struggling at the wrong end of League One, but one of them looks in a right old mess while the other's showing a bit of fight.

Port Vale have been a bit up and down lately, haven't they? They've had some decent results - that 0-0 draw against Wycombe shows they can dig in against a decent side, and they showed some spirit coming back from behind to draw 3-3 with Fleetwood in the EFL Trophy. Okay, the 4-0 hammering by Bolton wasn't great, but they've also put five past Maldon & Tiptree in the FA Cup. At home, they're not exactly setting the world alight with only one win in five, but they're drawing plenty (60% of home games end level), which suggests they're hard to beat on their own patch.

Now Plymouth... blimey, where do I start? They're in absolute freefall, aren't they? Five losses in their last six games, and they can't buy a goal away from home. Their away form is shocking - 83% loss rate on the road, scoring just 0.83 goals per game. They've failed to score in four of their last five away matches! Recent results tell the story: 0-2 at Wycombe, 0-2 at Mansfield, 0-2 at Exeter. They're shipping goals for fun and offering nothing going forward.

Here's the thing though - Port Vale have got Plymouth's number historically. Six wins from eight meetings, and at home they've won three of the five encounters. The last time these two met, Plymouth nicked it 3-1, but that was back in May 2023, and a lot's changed since then.

Looking at the stats, Plymouth have managed just one clean sheet in their last ten games - that's a woeful 10% rate. Port Vale, while not world-beaters, have kept four clean sheets in the same period (40%). With Plymouth averaging 1.67 goals conceded away from home and struggling to score themselves, this looks like a home banker to me.

The odds of 1.85 for a Port Vale win look pretty generous when you consider Plymouth's current form. They're rock bottom for a reason, and that away form is relegation-form stuff. Vale might not be brilliant, but they're showing more fight and have the historical edge over these opponents.