Preston vs Millwall Prediction

Preston host Millwall at their ground on 10 October in the Championship, and the numbers tell a clear story about who holds the advantage. Millwall's away record across 20 games is 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses, with 1.7 points per game, 1.35 goals scored per game and 1.05 conceded. Preston's home record over the same 20-game span is 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses, 0.9 points per game, 1.05 scored and 1.7 conceded. On most measures in the comparison table, the visitors are the stronger side.

The recent form reinforces this. Over their last 10 games across all venues, Millwall have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses (1.4 points per game, 1.6 scored per game, 1.6 conceded). Preston's last 10 is 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses (0.5 points per game, 0.9 scored, 2.0 conceded). The most recent head-to-head at Preston's ground, on 28 February 2026, ended 0-2 to Millwall. The full 19-meeting aggregate — which spans 13 years and includes games that dilute current form — shows Millwall winning 9, Preston winning 2, with 8 draws. Millwall's xG output in recent matches (1.72 per game across 5 games) is well above Preston's (0.79 per game across 3 games), and Millwall's xG against (1.45 per game) is below what Preston are conceding in actual goals (6 across those 3 xG games).

The counter-argument is that Preston did score in 4 of their last 5 matches, and the head-to-head at this specific venue within the last 12 months is a single meeting. Millwall's last 5 includes a 0-1 loss to Newcastle and a 1-3 defeat at Blackburn, and their away record carries 7 draws. The full head-to-head aggregate leans toward low-scoring outcomes: 14 of 19 meetings finished under 2.5 goals, and 8 of 19 were draws.

Key Points:

• Millwall's away record (9W 7D 4L in 20 games) outperforms Preston's home record (5W 3D 12L) on points, goals scored and goals conceded

• Preston's last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L; Millwall's last 10: 4W 2D 4L

• The most recent meeting at Preston's ground (28 February 2026) was a 0-2 Millwall win

• Millwall's recent xG output (1.72 per game) is well above Preston's (0.79 per game)

• The full head-to-head spans 19 meetings over 13 years; older games dilute current form

The evidence points firmly toward Millwall, but the strongest case I can build lands at roughly 45% for an away win. That is not a certainty. I do not place bets on 45% outcomes. No bet.