Qingdao Youth Island vs Changchun Yatai Prediction
Relegation Clash: Both Teams To Score?
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this season finale between Qingdao Youth Island and rock-bottom Changchun Yatai. On paper, you'd think Qingdao have this sorted - they're sitting pretty in 9th with 37 points, while Changchun are propping up the entire league with a miserable 19 points. But football, my friends, is rarely that simple, especially when you dig into the numbers.
Qingdao's home form has been absolutely shocking lately. We're talking zero wins in their last four matches on their own patch, conceding a whopping 2.25 goals per game at home. They've been better on the road, funnily enough, picking up three wins in their last six away trips. Recent results show they can mix it with the big boys - they drew 2-2 with third-placed Chengdu and only lost 1-2 to second-placed Shanghai. But at home? They've been shipping goals for fun.
Now for Changchun. Dead last, absolutely dreadful away form - zero wins in their last five on the road, scoring just 0.8 goals per game away from home. They got hammered 0-4 by Beijing Guoan in their last match, which tells you all you need to know about their current confidence levels. But here's the kicker - they've actually got the historical edge over Qingdao. Three meetings, zero wins for Qingdao, two wins for Changchun. Last time out, Changchun beat them 1-0. Funny old game, innit?
Both teams are pretty generous defensively - Qingdao with their 2.25 goals conceded at home, Changchun letting in 1.7 per game overall. Qingdao have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent matches, while Changchun are at 50%. When you've got a leaky home defense against an away side that, despite their struggles, has managed to score in four of their last five away trips... well, you can see where I'm going with this.
The goal expectancy numbers are suggesting around 2.8 goals in this one, and given Qingdao's defensive woes at home combined with Changchun's surprising historical dominance in this fixture, I'm leaning towards both teams getting on the scoresheet.