Preview
Mr SimpleRight then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga clash. RB Leipzig, sitting pretty in third, welcome SC Freiburg, who are a respectable eighth. On paper, it's a top-half tussle, but the history books and the recent form tell a very different story.
First off, let's talk about the elephant in the room – Freiburg have never beaten Leipzig. Not once in nine attempts! Leipzig have won six and drawn three, scoring 21 goals to Freiburg's seven. The last time they met, it was a boring 0-0 draw back in March, but before that, it was a 3-1 Leipzig win. At home, Leipzig have won three out of four against these lot. That's a proper hoodoo, and I don't see it ending here.
Why? Because Leipzig at home are a different beast. They've won 80% of their last five at their gaff, banging in three goals a game on average. Yeah, they had a wobble, losing 1-3 to a very good Bayer Leverkusen side, but they also smashed Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 and Stuttgart 3-1 at home recently. When they're on it, they're ruthless.
Now, Freiburg's recent form looks decent on the surface – six wins in ten. But you've got to look under the bonnet. Their away form is a right mess. They've only won one of their last four on the road, and the key stat is they're conceding nearly three goals a game away from home! Two-point-seven-five, to be exact. They got turned over 6-2 by Bayern (fair enough), lost 2-1 to Heidenheim (not so fair), and even in their 4-3 win at Wolfsburg, they shipped three. They cannot defend on their travels.
Leipzig's recent results have been a bit patchy – a goalless draw at St. Pauli and a loss at Union Berlin weren't great – but they always seem to turn up against Freiburg. And with Freiburg's leaky away defence coming to town, I fancy Leipzig to fill their boots.
The bookies have Leipzig at 1.80 to win. I reckon that's a bit of value. Given the home dominance, the historical dominance, and Freiburg's defensive travels, I'd make Leipzig a much stronger favourite.
Key Points:
Head-to-Head Hoodoo: Freiburg have never beaten Leipzig (0 wins in 9).
Home Fortress: Leipzig win 80% of home games, scoring 3 goals per match on average.
Away Day Blues: Freiburg concede 2.75 goals per game on the road.
Form Check: Leipzig 3rd, Freiburg 8th. Leipzig's recent blips came against tough/awkward opposition.
- Goal Expectation: The maths suggests a high-scoring game, heavily favouring the home side.
Summary: All signs point to a home win. Freiburg's resistance on the road has been paper-thin, and Leipzig love playing against them. At odds of 1.80, backing Leipzig to win is the sensible play here.