Reggiana vs Bari Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Reggiana and Bari. The home side are sitting pretty in 11th with 9 points, while Bari are down in the doldrums at 16th with just 6 points to show for their efforts this season.

Reggiana have been grinding out results lately - not exactly setting the world alight, but they're tough to beat. Three wins, five draws, and two losses in their last ten tells you they know how to get a result. They picked up a decent 2-1 win away at Cesena recently, and let me tell you, Cesena are flying high with 1.80 points per game, so that's no mean feat. At home, they've been drawing a fair bit, but they're finding the net with 2.0 goals per game on their own patch.

Now Bari... where do I start? Their away form is absolutely shocking. Zero wins in their last five road trips, with four losses and just one draw. They're barely scoring too - just 0.6 goals per game away from home while shipping 2.2 at the back. They've been given a proper hiding by the better sides as well - 2-0 at Palermo, 3-0 at Modena. That's not the form of a team that's going to rock up and get a result.

But here's the kicker - the head-to-head record is mental. Seven meetings between these two, Reggiana have two wins, five draws, and Bari have NEVER beaten them. Not once! The recent encounters have been tight affairs though - lots of 1-1s and 2-2s, with only one game going over 2.5 goals.

Both teams are pretty generous at the back - Reggiana have kept just one clean sheet in ten games, Bari the same. Reggiana have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, which tells you they're always in for a goal-fest.

The odds have got me interested though - Reggiana at 2.88 for the home win seems a bit generous given they're unbeaten against Bari historically and Bari can't buy a win on the road. They're scoring freely at home while Bari barely manage a shot on target away from home.

Key Points:

• Reggiana unbeaten in 7 meetings against Bari (2 wins, 5 draws)

• Bari have shocking away form: 0 wins in last 5 away games

• Reggiana scoring 2.0 goals per game at home

• Bari only managing 0.6 goals per game away from home

• Both teams leaky defensively - just 1 clean sheet each in last 10 games

Given the form, the head-to-head dominance, and Bari's travel sickness, I'm backing Reggiana to edge this one. The odds are too good to ignore for a team that's never lost to their opponents and is playing at home where they're scoring for fun.