Preview
Value VinnyVasco DA Gama walk into this one with the kind of numbers that make a tipster's eyes light up. Four wins and a draw from their last five — a 5–0 over Coritiba, a 2–0 over Santa Fe, a 2–1 at Botafogo, a 1–0 at Boca Juniors — have left them with 10 goals scored and just one conceded. Stretch that to ten games and it gets even better: seven wins, two draws, one loss, 17 scored, 4 conceded. That is a side in genuine command, and the market is not pricing it like one.
Sao Paulo, on the other hand, have dropped two of their last five. The 0–2 at Cruzeiro and the 1–2 at home to Santos have left them with 5 scored and 6 conceded across that stretch. Their last ten is 4W 1D 5L, 9 scored, 11 conceded. The 2–1 win over Vitoria on 11 October is their most recent positive, and even that came with a goal conceded. The 1–1 draw with Boca Juniors and the 1–0 over Internacional keep them afloat, but the pattern is one of a side that is leaking goals and struggling to find the edge.
Where Sao Paulo find their footing is the home record. Over 20 home games, 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 1.6 scored and 0.75 conceded per game. That is solid, and it is the main reason the market has them as favourites at 2.22. Vasco's away record over 20 games is more modest: 8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The matchup table puts Sao Paulo ahead on points per game, goals scored and goals conceded, but those are 20-game averages. The last ten tells a very different story.
The head-to-head at this venue is essentially blank. There have been no meetings at Sao Paulo's ground within the last 12 months. The two recent encounters both took place at Vasco's ground, with each side taking one — a 2–1 for Vasco in April and a 0–2 for Sao Paulo in November. The older meetings at Sao Paulo, a 1–3 loss and a 3–0 win, are historical and carry no real weight for current form. With no recent pattern at this ground, the form and the venue record have to do the talking.
The counter-argument is the home record. Twelve wins in 20 home games is not nothing, and the absence of recent head-to-head data means there is no clear pattern to lean on. A side that has won 60% of its home games is not a side you write off. But the form gap is hard to ignore. Vasco have won four of five, scored ten and conceded one. Sao Paulo have lost two of five and conceded six. The 10-game comparison — 7W 2D 1L for Vasco versus 4W 1D 5L for Sao Paulo — is the clearest signal in this fixture.
Key Points:
- Vasco DA Gama: 4W 1D 0L in last 5, 10 scored, 1 conceded; 7W 2D 1L in last 10
- Sao Paulo: 2W 1D 2L in last 5, 5 scored, 6 conceded; 4W 1D 5L in last 10
- Sao Paulo home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 1.6 scored, 0.75 conceded
- No head-to-head meetings at Sao Paulo's ground in the last 12 months
- Vasco away record: 8W 6D 6L in 20 games, 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded
The form gap is the story here, and the market has not fully priced it in. I rate Vasco's chance of winning at around 32%, which sits above the 27.03% the market is implying at 3.7. That is the value. The away win is the pick.