Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham Prediction by Mr Simple

Right, so we've got the Blades hosting the Red Dragon at Bramall Lane on 30 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a whiff of goals about it.

Let's start with the most telling bit: Sheffield Utd at home have gone over 2.5 goals in 16 of their last 20 games. That's a hell of a lot of football. Their home record over that stretch is 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses, but the scoring tells the real story – 1.85 goals a game for, 1.65 a game against. That's a lot of goals flying around at this end of the ground.

Now, Wrexham on the road are a different proposition. Over their last 20 away games, they've only gone over 2.5 in 8 of them, and they've kept 7 clean sheets and failed to score in 7. That's a tight, low-scoring away profile. But here's the thing – they're conceding 1.35 a game on the road, and Sheffield Utd are scoring nearly 2 at home. Put those two together and you've got a recipe for goals.

The head-to-head backs it up. In the last 12 months, these two have met twice and both games went over 2.5 – a 1–2 at Bramall Lane in March and a 5–3 at the Racecourse Park in December. In fact, both of their recent meetings have had three or more goals. That's not a coincidence; it's a pattern.

The counter-argument is fair enough. Wrexham's away record is lean on goals – 1 a game scored, 12 of 20 under 2.5. And their last trip to Blackburn ended 0–2, which was a quiet affair. Sheffield Utd's most recent home game was a 1–1 with Derby, which also stayed under. So there's a case for a tight, low-scoring evening.

But the weight of evidence leans the other way. Sheffield Utd's home scoring is the standout figure here, and the head-to-head has never produced a low-scoring result in the recent meetings. Wrexham's away defence, while solid in terms of clean sheets, is still conceding at a rate that Sheffield Utd's home attack will find.

Key Points:

• Sheffield Utd have gone over 2.5 in 16 of their last 20 home games

• Both recent head-to-head meetings (1–2 and 5–3) finished with three or more goals

• Wrexham's away record is low-scoring (8/20 over 2.5), but they concede 1.35 per game

• Sheffield Utd's home scoring averages 1.85 per game over 20 games

• Wrexham's last away game was a 0–2 loss at Blackburn

My pick: over 2.5 goals at 1.95. The numbers say this is a goals match, and the recent head-to-head meetings have all been high-scoring.