Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Prediction

Right, so we've got Sichuan Jiuniu hosting Henan Jianye on 9 October, and if you've been following Henan's recent form, you'll know they've been in a bit of a weird little rut. Four draws in a row. Four. That's a hell of a run, and it's got me scratching my head a bit.

Let's start with the obvious: Henan Jianye have drawn their last four games — 1–1 at Wuhan Three Towns, 0–0 against Chengdu Better City, 1–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long, and that wild 4–4 at Shenyang Urban. Six goals scored, six conceded. They're not winning, but they're not losing either. That's a team that's found a rhythm, even if it's a boring one.

Sichuan Jiuniu, for their part, have drawn their last game — 1–1 at Shandong Luneng — and their last five has been a bit of a mixed bag: one win, two draws, two losses. They beat Shenyang Urban 2–1 away in August, but they've also lost 0–1 at home to Shanghai SIPG and 0–4 to Beijing Guoan. So they're not exactly flying at the moment.

Now, the head-to-head here is a bit thin on the recent stuff. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in May at Henan's ground, and Henan won 1–0. There's no recent meeting at Sichuan's ground. Going further back — and I'll be clear, this is historical record, not current form — Henan won 1–3 at Sichuan's ground in 2025, and the other meeting at this venue was a 0–0 draw. So Henan haven't lost here in the older meetings, but that's a couple of years ago.

The venue samples tell a decent story. Over 20 home games, Sichuan Jiuniu have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, scoring 1.8 per game. Henan Jianye over 20 away games have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, scoring 1.35 per game. So Sichuan are the stronger side at home on the numbers, but Henan's away record is respectable, and those six draws in 20 away games say something about their consistency on the road.

The counter-argument is this: Henan have the edge in the head-to-head and their recent consistency is remarkable, but a four-draw run is about to end at some point. They've scored 1.6 per game over their last ten, and they've had both teams score in 8 of those 10. The 4–4 at Shenyang Urban showed they can put goals on the board. If Henan break the pattern, they're more likely to win than to draw, given the edge they've got in the H2H and their away record.

But here's the thing — both teams are in a low-scoring, draw-heavy phase. Sichuan's last five has three games under 2.5 goals, and Henan's last five has three as well. The scores have been 1–1, 0–0, 0–1, 1–1, 1–1. That's a lot of tight, cagey football. And the head-to-head has three draws in seven meetings. When two teams are both in a drawy spell and the scores are coming in low, the draw starts to look a lot more likely than the market is giving it credit for.

The bookies have the draw at 3.7, which implies about 27% chance. I'd put it closer to 30 or 31% given the run, the low scoring, and the H2H history. That's a small but real edge.

Key Points:

• Henan Jianye have drawn their last four games (scored 6, conceded 6)

• Both teams have been under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (May 2026) ended 1–0 to Henan; the H2H has 3 draws in 7 meetings

• Sichuan Jiuniu's home record: 9W 3D 8L in 20 games; Henan's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games

• Both teams' latest 10 games show high draw rates: Henan 7 draws, Sichuan 3 draws

My pick: the draw.