Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Prediction

Right, so we've got Sichuan Jiuniu hosting Henan Jianye on 9 October in the Super League, and I'm telling you, this one's got a flavour I can get behind — like a good braai on an evening, the kind where the meat actually shows up and you don't have to settle for vegetables.

Henan Jianye are the stronger side here, and the numbers back it up. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 1.3 points per game compared to Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.2, and they've scored 1.6 per game to Sichuan's 1.3. More importantly, Henan's away record over 20 games tells the story: 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, with 1.35 points per game. They've only dropped one point in their last five matches — well, actually they've dropped zero points in the last four, drawing 1-1 at Wuhan Three Towns, 0-0 at home to Chengdu Better City, 1-1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long, and 4-4 at Shenyang Urban. That's a team that's not losing, even if the wins aren't coming yet.

The head-to-head adds weight. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in May at Henan's ground, and Henan took it 1-0. There's no recent meeting at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground, so we're looking at older fixtures for that venue — a 1-3 Henan win and a 0-0 draw — which are historical record, not current form. The recent H2H says Henan have the edge in this fixture.

Now the counter-argument, and I'll be honest: Henan's four-draw run is a bit of a concern. They haven't won in four games, and that 4-4 draw at Shenyang Urban, while a draw, shows they're conceding freely. Sichuan Jiuniu at home over 20 games have 9 wins and 1.8 goals per game, so they're not a team to write off on their own patch. Their last two home games, though, were a 0-1 loss to Shanghai SIPG on 28 August and a 1-1 draw with Hangzhou Greentown on 22 August, so the home form isn't exactly firing. And that 0-4 loss to Beijing Guoan two months ago shows they can get torn apart on the road, but at home they've got a record of 9 wins in 20 that you can't ignore.

The BTTS angle is interesting too. Henan have both teams scoring in 8 of their last 10, and Sichuan at home have seen both teams score in 12 of 20. The market prices both teams to score at 1.53, which I think is fair, but the main game is what matters here.

My read: Henan Jianye are the better team, they've only lost once in five, and the market has them at 44.64% for the win. I'd put their chances closer to 48%, which gives a small but real edge. The draw is a live possibility given that run, but the form edge and the H2H say Henan get the job done.

Key Points:

• Henan Jianye have lost only once in their last five matches, drawing the last four

• Henan's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games, 1.35 points per game

• The only recent H2H meeting (15 May 2026) was a 1-0 Henan win

• Sichuan Jiuniu's last two home games: 0-1 loss and 1-1 draw

• Henan's BTTS rate in last 10: 8 of 10 yes

Verdict: I'm going with the away win for Henan Jianye.