Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye Prediction

Henan Jianye walk into this Super League fixture carrying a run of four consecutive draws. The 1–1 at Wuhan Three Towns, the 0–0 against Chengdu Better City, the 1–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long, and the 4–4 draw at Shenyang Urban's ground all ended level. In those four games they scored six and conceded six, which tells you this is a team that can find the back of the net but also leaves the door open at the other end.

Sichuan Jiuniu, hosting at their own ground, have a more mixed recent record. Their last five matches produced one win, two draws and two losses, including a 0–4 defeat at Beijing Guoan and a 0–1 home loss to Shanghai SIPG. The 2–1 win at Shenyang Urban and the 1–1 draw at home show they can compete, but the 0–4 and 0–1 results raise questions about their defensive resilience.

The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There has been no meeting at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground within the last twelve months. The one recent encounter, back in May 2026, was a 1–0 Henan win at their own ground. The older meetings at this venue — a 1–3 Henan win and a 0–0 draw — are historical record and do not carry much weight for current form.

Looking at the venue samples over twenty games each, Sichuan Jiuniu at home have won 9 of 20, drawn 3 and lost 8, averaging 1.5 points per game and scoring 1.8 goals per match. Henan Jianye away have won 7 of 20, drawn 6 and lost 7, averaging 1.35 points per game and scoring 1.35 goals per match. The home side's record is the stronger one, with more wins and a higher points-per-game figure.

The counter-argument to a Henan win is straightforward: their last five matches contain zero victories. Four draws and one loss is not the profile of a team about to break through. Meanwhile, Sichuan Jiuniu's home record over twenty games is solid, and the fact that they have failed to score in only 2 of those 20 home games suggests they will find a way to get on the scoresheet.

The market prices Henan Jianye as the favourite at 2.24, with a bookmaker-implied probability of 44.64%. The draw sits at 3.7 (27.03%) and Sichuan Jiuniu at 3.07 (32.57%). My own reading of the football evidence puts Henan's win probability in the low 40s, the draw around 27%, and Sichuan's win in the low 30s. The prices are tracking the evidence closely, and I cannot identify a genuine value edge on any of the three main outcomes.

Key Points:

• Henan Jianye have drawn their last four matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6 in the process

• Sichuan Jiuniu's home record over 20 games is 9W 3D 8L with 1.8 goals scored per game

• No meeting at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground within the last 12 months; the head-to-head at this venue is historical

• Henan's away record over 20 games: 7W 6D 7L, 1.35 points per game

• Both teams' recent form (Sichuan 1W 2D 2L, Henan 0W 4D 1L) points to a tight, low-margin game

No Bet. The recorded prices track the football evidence closely, and I cannot find a value edge with the confidence this fixture demands. Discipline says walk away.