Skive vs FA 2000 Prediction

The force is strong with Skive, and so it must be when a side that has won two of their last three home games — 2–0 over HIK and 2–1 against B 93 — welcomes a visitor who has not won in ten matches. FA 2000 arrive at Skive's ground with a record of 0W 4D 6L over their latest ten games, and their last three away outings have produced defeats of 0–1, 1–5 and 1–3. The old one sees a team that is leaking goals at a rate of 2.4 per game in their last five, and that has failed to score in 10 of their 20 away matches.

Skive, for their part, are not without their own troubles. A 0–3 defeat at Roskilde on 10 October is the latest in a run that has seen them lose 2 of their last 5. Their home record over 20 games reads 4W 9D 7L — a side that draws as often as it wins, and that has failed to score in 6 of those 20 home fixtures. Yet the last three home games tell a different story: two wins and a 0–0 draw, with 4 goals scored and only 1 conceded.

The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There has been no meeting at Skive's ground within the last 12 months; the only recent fixture was a 2–2 draw at FA 2000's ground on 5 September. The older meetings — a 3–2 Skive win and a 2–2 draw at this ground, plus two FA 2000 wins at their own — are historical record, not current form. So we lean on what is fresh.

The counter-argument, and I must honour it, is this: Skive's home record is littered with draws. Nine of their 20 home games have ended level. A side that draws so readily can be caught by a team that, despite its poor form, has scored in 4 of its last 5 matches. FA 2000's away record does show 5 wins in 20, and the 2–2 draw six weeks ago at FA 2000's ground suggests these two can produce open, goal-laden affairs. The market prices the draw at 3.55, and that is not without merit.

But the weight of the evidence bends one way. FA 2000 have not won in ten. They concede 2.4 per game. They have failed to score in 10 of 20 away matches. Skive, at home, have won their last two home games and are the stronger side in most of the comparisons the numbers offer — 1.1 goals scored per home game against 0.65 for FA 2000 on the road, 1.55 conceded per home game against 1.15 for FA 2000 away. The points-per-game figures are level at 1.05, but the recent form tells a very different tale: 1.4 points per game for Skive in their last five, 0.2 for FA 2000.

Key Points:

• FA 2000: 0W 4D 6L in last 10; 0W 1D 4L in last 5; 2.4 goals conceded per game in last 5

• Skive: 2W 1D 2L in last 5; won last 2 home games (2–0, 2–1)

• FA 2000 away record: 5W 6D 9L in 20; failed to score in 10/20

• Skive home record: 4W 9D 7L in 20; 1.1 scored, 1.55 conceded per game

• Only recent H2H meeting: 2–2 draw at FA 2000's ground on 5 September

The wise path, my young friend, is to trust the side that is home, that is stronger, and that faces a visitor who has not tasted victory in ten matches. I place my faith in the home win.