SS Monopoli vs Benevento Prediction

Odds don’t lie — but bookies do. In this fixture, the mathematics are screaming a clear direction. We are looking at SS Monopoli hosting Benevento in Serie C - Girone C on 2026-03-23.

The standings tell the primary story. Benevento sit comfortably in 1st place with 76 points from 32 games. SS Monopoli are 8th with 47 points. A 29-point gap is massive in a league of 20 teams. This isn't just a gap; it's a chasm in relative strength.

Form analysis reinforces the standings. Benevento's last 10 games show 9 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses. That is a 90% win rate. Their away form is particularly lethal: a 100% win rate in their last 5 away games, averaging 2.80 goals per game. SS Monopoli, conversely, have a 40% win rate in their last 10 games, averaging 0.70 goals scored per game overall. While Monopoli have a 75% win rate at home, Benevento's away dominance (2.80 goals/game) suggests they will overwhelm the home side.

Head-to-Head history is the only variable that complicates the picture. Historically, Monopoli has 3 wins to Benevento's 1 in 5 meetings. However, the most recent meeting on 2025-11-16 ended 1-3 to Benevento. Recent form and current standings usually outweigh historical H2H when the gap is this large.

Goal expectancy inputs suggest a total of 2.67 goals (Home 1.02, Away 1.65). The bookmakers have priced the Away Win at 1.90. This implies a probability of roughly 52.6%. Based on the 29-point gap and Benevento's 100% away win rate over their last 5 away games, I estimate the true probability is closer to 65%. This creates a significant Expected Value (EV) of roughly 23.5%. That is well above the 3% threshold for a value bet.

Key Points:

• Benevento leads the table with 76 points; Monopoli are 8th with 47 points.

• Benevento have a 90% win rate in their last 10 games.

• Benevento average 2.80 goals per game in their last 5 away matches.

• Monopoli average 0.70 goals per game in their last 10 matches.

• The 1.90 odds for an Away Win offer significant value compared to estimated win probability.

Verdict:

The math is clear. The points gap and recent form heavily favor the visitors. The odds of 1.90 for an Away Win represent genuine value. I am backing the Away Win.