Start vs Sandefjord Prediction

Right, so Start are hosting Sandefjord on 25 October in the Eliteserien, and if I'm being honest, the last time these two met, it wasn't pretty for the home side. Sandefjord put 3 to 0 on Start back in September, and before that in March, another 3-2 at Sandefjord's ground. So in the last 12 months, every time these two have met, Sandefjord have won. And both times, at Sandefjord's place.

Now, here's the thing: there's no recent meeting at Start's ground. The last three times they played here go back to 2020, 2021 and 2023, and the record is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss. So we're flying a bit blind on the head-to-head at this venue, and I'd rather lean on what's happening right now.

Start's recent form, though, is a bit of a nightmare. They've lost their last two — 1-6 at Molde and 2-4 at home to Ham-Kam — and in those two games they've conceded 10. That's a lot of goals leaking out. Their xG against over the last three games with data is 2.63 per game, which tells you they're getting punished when they're out of position. The 5-1 win at Raufoss in the cup and the 2-1 friendly against Brann at home are the bright spots, but the league form is grim.

On the flip side, Start's home record over 20 games is 10 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses. That's a solid 50% win rate at home, and they've scored 1.75 per game while conceding 1.45. So historically, this is a decent place to be, and the numbers back that up.

Sandefjord's away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses. They score 2.25 per game away, which is more than Start score at home, but they also concede 1.65. Their last five games have been 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, and they lost their most recent one 0-2 at home to Lillestrom. Their xG for is 1.08 per game over the last five games with data, which isn't a huge amount of chance creation. So they're not exactly tearing up the opposition, but they've got the results.

So the counter-argument to a Sandefjord win is pretty straightforward: Start's home record is better than Sandefjord's away record, the head-to-head at this ground is basically a coin flip historically, and Sandefjord's goal creation has been modest. Plus, they just lost at home, which isn't the most confident way to travel.

But the recent form and the head-to-head in the last 12 months both point the same way. Start are leaking goals, Sandefjord have beaten them twice, and the away side's scoring record is up there. When a team's conceded 10 in two games and the opposition's won both recent meetings, it's hard to trust the home side.

Key Points:

• Sandefjord won both meetings in the last 12 months (3-0 and 3-2), both at their own ground

• Start have lost their last two games, conceding 10 goals in the process

• Start's home record over 20 games: 10W 3D 7L, scoring 1.75 per game

• Sandefjord's away record over 20 games: 8W 3D 9L, scoring 2.25 per game

• No recent head-to-head at Start's ground; the last three meetings here are from 2020 to 2023

My verdict: I'm going with the away win for Sandefjord at 3.13. The recent form and head-to-head tell a clear story, and Start's defensive issues in the last two games make it hard to trust them at home.