Right, so we've got Stockport County at home to Bromley on 17 October at 14:00 UTC, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a bit of a one-sided feel to it.
Stockport County have been absolutely cracking. They've won their last three, chucked in six goals and only let one in. At home, over their last 20 games, they've won 14 of them, scoring 2.3 a game and conceding just 1.1. The current run has them firing: 3-1 past Barnsley on 10 October, 2-0 at Shrewsbury on 6 October, and 1-0 against Peterborough on 26 September. Three wins, and clean sheets in three of those five most recent games. That's a side with confidence and a solid home base.
Bromley, on the other hand, have been having a bit of a nightmare. They've lost their last three, managed just one goal and conceded seven. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, and the xG numbers tell the story — they're expected to concede 2.57 goals per game over their last three matches with data. That's a lot of holes in the boat. They lost 4-0 to Crawley on 6 October and 2-1 to Mansfield on 10 October, and before that, 0-1 at home to Brentford U21 on 22 September. Three straight defeats, and the goals aren't coming.
Now, the head-to-head here is a bit dated. All five meetings go back to 2020-2022, so we can't really use it as current form. But what it does show is that Stockport County have never lost to Bromley in those five — three wins and two draws. At Stockport's ground specifically, it's 1 win and 2 draws from three meetings. So historically, Bromley haven't had a great day at this place, though I'd stress those are old numbers.
The counter-argument? Well, Stockport County's home record is 14 out of 20, which is 70%, not 80%. They did lose 3-4 to Leicester at home on 12 September, so they're not untouchable. And Bromley did pick up 7 wins from 20 away games, so they're not completely without a tooth. The 3-game winning run for Stockport and the 3-game losing run for Bromley are small samples — one bad day and the whole picture shifts. Football's not a straight line.
The market has Stockport County at 1.26, which prices them at about 79% to win. My own read, looking at the form, the home record, and Bromley's struggles on the road, puts them at around 80%. That's close, but it's not quite the stretch I'd need to feel comfortable laying this at that price. The gap between what the market is saying and what I'd honestly put my money on is just too thin for my liking.
Key Points:
- Stockport County have won their last 3, scoring 6 and conceding 1
- Bromley have lost their last 3, scoring 1 and conceding 7
- Stockport County's home record: 14W 2D 4L in 20 games
- Bromley's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games
- Head-to-head is entirely historical (2020-2022), with Stockport County unbeaten in 5 meetings
So my verdict: No Bet. The case for Stockport County is strong, but the available prices don't give me enough cushion to feel the value is there. Sometimes the best tip is the one you don't take.
