Stoke City vs Swansea Prediction

Right then, let's get stuck into this Championship clash at the bet365 Stadium. Stoke City, sitting pretty in 8th, welcome a Swansea side who are down in 18th and looking over their shoulder. On paper, it's a home banker, but football's never that simple, is it?

Stoke are a funny old side at the minute. They've lost their last three – 1-0 at Ipswich, a proper hiding 4-0 at Sheffield United, and a 1-2 defeat at home to Hull. That's not great reading. But before that slump, they were banging them in at home: a 5-1 thumping of Bristol City and a 3-0 win over Charlton. That's the story of their season – when they're good at home, they're very good, scoring an average of 2.25 goals per game. But they're also prone to a off day, as that Hull loss showed.

Swansea, on the other hand, have just won two on the bounce. Sounds good, until you see it was 1-0 against Portsmouth and 2-0 against Oxford United, both at home. Take them on the road, and it's a different kettle of fish. They've not won away in their last four, shipping goals for fun – conceding an average of 2.25 per trip. They lost 3-2 at West Brom, 3-0 at Bristol City, and 2-1 at Preston. They can score on their travels, but they can't keep the back door shut.

Now, let's talk history. Stoke have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning four of the last nine meetings. The last time they met, back in February, Stoke won 3-1. More importantly for us punters, six of those nine clashes saw over 2.5 goals. When these two get together, they tend not to be shy.

So, what's the play here? Stoke need to stop the rot, and they're back at their fortress where they know how to find the net. Swansea are vulnerable away from home. Even if Stoke's form is wobbling, facing a defence that leaks over two goals a game on the road is just the tonic they need. I can see Stoke getting a couple. And Swansea? Well, they've scored in three of their last four away games, so they might nick one too. That points to goals.

The bookies have Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10. Given Stoke's home attack (2.25 goals per game) meeting Swansea's away defence (conceding 2.25 per game), that looks generous to me. Both teams have shown they can be involved in high-scoring affairs recently.

Key Points:

Stoke City average a hefty 2.25 goals per game at home.

Swansea concede a worrying 2.25 goals per game on their travels.

Stoke have lost three on the spin but were scoring freely at home before that.

Swansea have won two at home but are winless in four away (D1, L3).

• Head-to-head history favours goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

In summary, this has the makings of an open game. Stoke will be desperate to get back to winning ways in front of their own fans, and Swansea's defence on the road has been a charity. I fancy at least three goals in this one.