Right, folks, it's another one of those fixtures where the little guy at home is getting looked at with a bit of a squint. Valencia are hosting Athletic Club on 17 October, and I've been digging through the numbers to see if there's a hidden gem here for the underdog. I always root for the pup, so let me see what the evidence gives us.
Let me start with what's encouraging for Valencia. Their home record over the last 20 games at their ground shows 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, with 1.3 goals scored per game. That's not a dominant record, but it's a record where they've found a way to get points. The head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months is just one meeting — a 1-2 loss to Athletic Club in the Copa del Rey on 4 February — so there's no pattern to fear. And if you look at the last 20 home games, 11 of them went over 2.5 goals, which means this venue tends to produce a decent number of goals. That can help a team that's been struggling to find the back of the net.
Now, the honest truth: Valencia's last five games have been rough. One win, one draw and three losses, with 11 goals conceded and just 5 scored. The 0-5 defeat to Barcelona at home on 6 September was a stinging one, and the 2-3 loss to Real Sociedad on 20 September showed the same defensive fragility. They did pick up a point at Racing Santander on 11 October, drawing 2-2, but that's one of the few positive notes in their last five games. Their points per game over the last 10 is 0.6, which is not a good look.
Athletic Club, by contrast, arrive with noticeably better form. Their last five games: two wins, two draws and one loss, with 6 goals scored and just 3 conceded. The 3-0 win over Atletico Madrid at home on 5 September and the 2-0 win at Celta Vigo on 30 August were impressive. Their away record over 20 games is 9 wins, 1 draw and 10 losses, with 1.95 goals scored per game and 1.45 conceded — both figures better than Valencia's home numbers. They've kept 6 clean sheets in those 20 away games, compared to Valencia's 3 at home. Their points per game over the last 10 is 1.1, compared to Valencia's 0.6.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months is split: Valencia won 1-0 at Athletic Club's ground in May, and Athletic Club won 2-1 at Valencia in February. One win each, no draws. It's a genuinely even fixture on that record, and the older meetings going back two years don't really tell us anything about where these teams are now.
The counter-argument for Valencia is that Athletic Club's last two games have been low-scoring draws — 0-0 with Alaves and 1-1 with Elche. That's a slight dip in momentum, and it does suggest they're not in the same attacking rhythm they showed against Atletico Madrid. Also, the head-to-head is perfectly even, and Valencia's home record does show they've won 6 of their last 20 at this ground. The venue's tendency to produce goals could work in Valencia's favour if they can get on the scoresheet.
But I have to be honest with you all: the weight of the evidence tilts toward Athletic Club. Their form is superior, their away record is stronger, and the head-to-head is even. Valencia are the underdog here, and I'd love to back them, but the numbers don't give me the confidence to do so.
Key Points:
- Valencia's last 5: 1W 1D 3L, 5 scored, 11 conceded
- Athletic Club's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, 6 scored, 3 conceded
- Athletic Club away record (20 games): 9W 1D 10L, 1.95 scored per game, 1.45 conceded per game
- Head-to-head last 12 months: 1 win each, no draws
- Athletic Club's last 2 games: 0-0 and 1-1 draws
Verdict: No Bet. The available prices could not be used for a recommendation, and even setting that aside, the evidence doesn't give me the confidence to back either side with the conviction I need.
