Preview
Right, so we've got Viking at home against Tromso on 25 October, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a pretty one-sided flavour to it.
Viking at home are, frankly, a nightmare to face. Over the last 20 home games โ stretching back to October 2025 โ they've won 18, drawn 1 and lost just 1. That's 3.55 goals a game and only 1 conceded. They've kept 7 clean sheets and failed to score in zero of those 20. Every single one of those 20 home games went over 2.5 goals. That's not a trend, that's a pattern so consistent it's almost boring.
Their last five across all competitions tells a similar story: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 12 goals scored. The only blemish was that 1-3 trip to Aston Villa in the Champions League four days ago, and even the 3-3 draw with Bayern at home showed they can handle big nights. In domestic competition, they've been tearing teams apart โ 3-2 at Fredrikstad, 2-0 at Brann, 3-0 at Madla.
Now, Tromso on the road are a different proposition. Their last 20 away games show 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. They score 2.05 a game but concede 1.75. Their last five has been 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and the last two have both been 1-1 draws โ one at home against KFUM Oslo and one away at Fredrikstad. They've not kept a single clean sheet in those five. The Rosenborg 5-3 hammering six weeks ago showed what happens when their defence cracks on the road.
The head-to-head is thin on recent evidence โ just one meeting in the last 12 months, a 1-1 friendly at Tromso's ground back in February. The older meetings at Viking's ground (a 4-4 draw and a 2-1 win) are historical, so I won't lean on them. What I will say is that the matchup table paints a clear picture: Viking at home outscore Tromso away on every meaningful measure โ points per game (2.75 to 1.5), goals scored (3.55 to 2.05), goals conceded (1 to 1.75), and clean sheets (7 to 5).
The counter-argument? Well, Viking did lose to Aston Villa just four days ago, and they've been juggling Champions League nights alongside domestic football. Tromso's last two games have been draws, which suggests they're not falling apart. And the only recent head-to-head was a 1-1. But honestly, that's a friendly, and the gap between a side that's won 18 of their last 20 at home and one that's lost 8 of their last 20 away is hard to bridge.
Key Points:
- Viking's home record over 20 games: 18W 1D 1L, 3.55 goals scored, 1 conceded
- Tromso's away record over 20 games: 9W 3D 8L, 2.05 scored, 1.75 conceded
- Viking's last 5: 3W 1D 1L, 12 goals scored; Tromso's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, 10 scored, 10 conceded
- Only 1 recent head-to-head meeting (1-1 friendly, February 2026); older meetings are historical
- The matchup table shows Viking home ahead on points, goals, clean sheets and failed-to-score
My pick: Viking home win at 1.53. The numbers don't lie โ 18 wins from 20 at home against a side that's lost 8 of their last 20 away. I rate this at around 73%, which sits comfortably above the market's 65.36% view. That's value, and I'm happy to take it.
