Vitoria vs Corinthians Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Brazilian scrap between Vitoria and Corinthians. Both sides are having a bit of a middling season, sitting in that "could do better" territory of the Serie A table.

Vitoria are perched in 17th spot with 31 points, while Corinthians are just five places above them in 11th with 36 points. Not exactly setting the world alight, are they? But let's dig into the recent form, that's where the real story is.

The home side have had a right mixed bag lately. They've bagged two wins on the trot - 1-0 at Santos and then a cracking 2-1 home win against Bahia. But blimey, they've also shipped some absolute howlers, like that 8-0 hammering by Flamengo and a 4-3 loss to Vasco. At home though, they've been a bit more solid, winning 60% of their last five home games. They're scoring 1.20 per game at their place and only letting in 0.80, which is decent enough.

Corinthians, on the other hand, have been a bit more consistent. They're averaging 1.70 points per game over their last ten, compared to Vitoria's 1.30. They've kept five clean sheets in those ten matches - that's 50% of the time, which is proper tidy. Away from home, they're not too shabby either, winning 40% of their last five on the road.

When these two have met, it's been Corinthians who've had the upper hand. Out of nine meetings, Corinthians have won four to Vitoria's one, with four draws. Crucially, Vitoria have never beaten Corinthians at home in four attempts - two draws and two losses.

Looking at the stats, both teams aren't exactly free-scoring. Vitoria average 1.10 goals per game overall, Corinthians 1.20. The goal expectancy has it at 1.10 for Vitoria and 0.80 for Corinthians - doesn't exactly scream goal fest, does it?

The bookies have got it as a proper 50-50 job with both sides at 2.75 for the win. But given Corinthians' better recent form, their solid defensive record, and Vitoria's struggles at home against them historically, I'm leaning towards the away side.

Key Points:

• Corinthians have better recent form (1.70 vs 1.30 points per game)

• Corinthians keep clean sheets 50% of the time compared to Vitoria's 30%

• Vitoria have never beaten Corinthians at home (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses)

• Both teams average around 1.1-1.2 goals per game

• Corinthians have won 40% of their last 5 away games

Sometimes you've got to be brave and pick a winner, and I reckon Corinthians just about have enough to edge this one.