Preview
Right, so we've got VJS hosting TPV in the Ykkönen on 18 October, and if you've been following VJS's form, you'll know they're on a roll. Four wins in a row, eight goals scored and just two conceded across that run. They've lost only two in 20 home games, and when they do score, they score in bunches — 3.1 a game at home. That's a lot of goals, mate.
TPV, on the other hand, are having a bit of a rough patch on the road. Their last five has two wins and three losses, and their away record over 20 games tells the story: 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses. They score 1.5 per game away and concede nearly 2. That's not a great look when you're travelling to a side that just clobbered KPV-j 2-0 at home and beat Inter Turku II 2-1 in September.
Now, the head-to-head is interesting. In the last 12 months, they've met twice and split the spoils — VJS took 2-1 at home in June, TPV won 3-1 at their own ground back in April. So it's not one-sided. The older meetings from two years ago include a 6-2 win for VJS at this venue, but I'll be honest — those are historical, not current form. Still, they paint a picture.
The matchup table makes the difference even clearer. VJS at home: 13 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses in 20 games, averaging 3.1 goals per game. TPV away: 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses in 20 games, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.95 conceded. VJS keep 7 clean sheets in 20 home games; TPV manage just 2 in 20 away. That's not one number — it's the whole picture, and it points one way.
The counter-argument? TPV did beat VJS 3-1 at their own ground six months ago, and they've got a 4-0 win over KPV-j in their most recent outing. They're not a team that just rolls over. VJS's only recent loss was that 0-2 to Rops away, so they're not invincible either. And the recent H2H is split, so TPV have shown they can handle this fixture.
But here's the thing: VJS are on a four-game winning streak, they're scoring freely at home, and TPV's away record is genuinely poor. The market has VJS at 1.44, which prices them at about 69%. I'd put them a touch higher than that, around 73%, given the form and the home/away split. That's a small but real edge.
Key Points:
- VJS have won their last 4 matches, scoring 8 and conceding just 2
- VJS home record: 13W 5D 2L in 20 games, averaging 3.1 goals per game
- TPV away record: 7W 4D 9L in 20 games, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.95 conceded
- Recent H2H is split 1-1, but VJS hold the edge at this venue in older meetings
- TPV's last 5 includes two heavy defeats (0-3 at Inter Turku II, 1-3 to FC jazz)
My pick: VJS home win at 1.44.
