Preview
The force is strong with UCD, and it shows in the numbers, young padawan. In their last ten matches across all grounds, UCD have scored 2.1 goals per game and failed to score in just 0 of those 10. Wexford, by contrast, have managed 1.3 per game and found themselves without a goal in 3 of 10. That is a gap that does not close itself.
UCD's away record over 20 games tells a story of a side that travels well: 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses, with 1.45 goals scored per game. Wexford at home over the same span have 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses, but their scoring sits at 1.3 per game. The points-per-game edge rests with Wexford at home (1.4 to 1.2), yet the attacking output clearly favours the visitors.
The head-to-head within the last 12 months paints a clear picture. Two months before this fixture, UCD dispatched Wexford 4โ1 at their own ground. The meeting before that, at Wexford's ground, ended 2โ1 to the hosts. And the one before that was a 0โ0 stalemate at UCD. So at this venue the most recent meeting went to Wexford, but the broader recent picture leans firmly UCD's way.
Now, the other side of the coin, as the old one would say. Wexford's home record is not to be dismissed. Eight wins in 20 home games is a solid foundation. And their current run โ two draws in a row, scoring 5 and conceding 5 โ suggests a side that is not without a pulse. The 2โ1 win over UCD at this ground in May is a reminder that Wexford can find a way on their own turf. Both teams sit in similar recent form: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in their last five. The draw at 3.6 is a live possibility, and the 0โ0 meeting at UCD in April shows these sides can cancel each other out.
But the weight of evidence, the weight of the numbers, the weight of the force โ it all points one way. UCD have not failed to score in their last ten. They outscore Wexford over the last ten matches. Their away defence has kept 6 clean sheets in 20 games, more than Wexford's 4 at home. The 4โ1 scoreline two months ago is not a fluke; it is a statement. I rate UCD's chance of winning at around 43%, which sits comfortably above the market's 38.02% implied by the 2.63 price. The edge is there, and it is not small.
Key Points:
- UCD scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Wexford failed to score in 1 of 5
- UCD's last 10 form: 3W 4D 3L (1.3 PPG) vs Wexford's 3W 2D 5L (1.1 PPG)
- Most recent H2H: UCD won 4โ1 at their ground in August 2026
- Both teams' last 5 games produced over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches each
- Wexford's home record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games; UCD away: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games
The force is with the visitors. UCD win.
