Wexford vs UCD Prediction

Wexford and UCD meet at Wexford's ground on 16 October in the First Division, and I'm feeling a little extra optimistic about the visitors today. There's something about an away side that's quietly outscoring everyone while the home team stumbles, and that's exactly the little puppy I love to back.

Let's start with what UCD bring to the table. Their last 10 games across all venues have seen them score 21 goals at 2.1 per game, and remarkably, they haven't failed to score in a single one of those 10 matches. That's a team that's finding the back of the net with consistency. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses at 1.2 points per game, with 1.45 goals scored per outing. More recently, they thrashed Treaty United 4-0 on the road just two weeks before this fixture, and they beat Wexford 4-1 at their own ground back in August. That 4-1 scoreline showed UCD's ability to dominate this particular fixture.

Now, Wexford's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses at 1.4 points per game, which on its face looks respectable. But peel back the recent form and it's a different story. Their last 5 matches have yielded just 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses at 1 point per game, and their last 10 across all venues sit at 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. They've conceded 19 goals in those 10 games and failed to score in 3 of them. There's also been a red card in 3 of their last 5 matches, which adds a layer of unpredictability to an already inconsistent run.

The head-to-head over the last 12 months tells a story of two competitive sides. UCD won 4-1 at their ground in August, Wexford responded with a 2-1 home win in May, and they drew 0-0 at UCD in April. At this specific venue, the only recent meeting was that 2-1 Wexford win in May. So the home side do have a recent memory of winning here, and that's worth acknowledging.

The counter-argument for Wexford is straightforward: their home record is solid at 1.4 points per game, they've scored 1.3 goals per game at home over 20 games, and they beat UCD here just a few months ago. UCD's away record, while respectable, does include 8 losses in 20 games, and they lost 1-5 to Cork City on the road back in September. That's a tough one to shake off.

But here's where I tip my cap to the visitors. UCD's scoring output in their last 10 games (2.1 per game) sits well above Wexford's (1.3 per game), and the fact that UCD haven't gone blank in 10 matches while Wexford have failed to score in 3 of their last 10 is telling. UCD's defence has also been more solid recently, conceding 2 per game in their last 10 compared to Wexford's 1.9. The 4-1 scoreline from August showed UCD's ability to control this fixture when they're on their game.

Key Points:

• UCD have scored in all of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals per game

• Wexford's last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses at 1 point per game

• UCD beat Wexford 4-1 at their ground in August; Wexford won 2-1 here in May

• Wexford's home record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games; UCD's away record: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games

• UCD's away BTTS record: 13 of 20 games saw both teams score

So there you have it, folks — I'm backing the underdog here. UCD away win at 2.63 is my pick, and I'm rooting for the little puppies to pull off a surprise on the road.