Right, so we've got Wolves taking on Portsmouth at home on 20 October, and I'm gonna be honest with you — this one's got me scratching my head a bit. The home record says Wolves should be the ones doing the talking, but the last few weeks have had them looking a bit like a braai that's not quite caught yet.
Let's start with what the Wolves' home record actually tells us. Over their last 20 home games, Wolves have won 8, drawn 5 and lost 7, picking up 1.45 points per game. They've scored 34 goals at home — that's 1.7 a game — and conceded 25, which is 1.25 per match. Six clean sheets in 20. That's a solid home base. Now look at Portsmouth on the road: 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses in 20 away games, 1.2 points per game, 1.15 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The matchup table makes it clear — Wolves are the stronger side at this end of the fixture, scoring more and keeping the ball out of their net more often.
But here's where it gets tricky, and I don't like it. Wolves have lost three of their last five games. They went down 1–3 at home to Bolton on 13 October, just seven days before this one. Before that, they lost 0–1 at Middlesbrough on 10 October and 0–1 to Everton in the League Cup on 16 September. The one bright spot is the 2–1 win at Burnley on 16 October, four days ago, where they scored two and conceded one. So they've got a win in the tank, but the home loss to Bolton is sitting in my stomach like a too-spicy biltong.
Portsmouth, on the other hand, are on a two-game winning run. They beat Sheffield United 3–2 at home on 14 October — though Sheffield did get a red card in the 44th minute — and then won 1–0 at Norwich on 17 October, three days ago. Four goals scored, two conceded in those two. Their last five overall is 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, which is decent. They're not flying, but they're not falling apart either.
Now, the head-to-head is a blank slate — no meetings on record between these two. So we can't lean on history. We've got to go on current form and the venue numbers, and those point to Wolves being favourites, but the 1–3 Bolton result and the three losses in five make me nervous about handing out a firm pick at the price on offer.
Key Points:
- Wolves' home record: 8W 5D 7L in 20 games, 1.7 goals scored per game, 1.25 conceded per game
- Portsmouth away record: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games, 1.15 goals scored per game, 1.6 conceded per game
- Wolves lost 1–3 at home to Bolton on 13 October and 0–1 at Middlesbrough on 10 October
- Portsmouth are on a two-game winning run, scoring 4 and conceding 2
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
After all that, I'm sitting on my hands. The home record says Wolves should win, but the recent form has them looking a bit rattled, and the price on a Wolves win doesn't give me the comfort I need to put my name on it. No bet.
