Preview
Worthing arrive at this fixture in strong form, having won three of their last five matches and scored in every single one. Their 3-3 draw with Southend on 27 October kept the scoring output ticking, and before that they beat Kidderminster Harriers 2-1 away on 24 October. The 5-0 demolition of Solihull Moors on 10 October showed their attacking intent at home, and the 2-1 win at Gateshead on 3 October confirmed they can deliver on the road too. All five of those games went over 2.5 goals, which tells you the kind of output to expect.
The home record is the real story here. Across 20 home games, Worthing have won 12, drawn 4 and lost 4, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding just 0.95. They've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 matches and failed to score in only 2. That's a side that controls games at home, and the numbers don't lie.
Sutton Utd, by contrast, have a much less convincing away record. In 20 away games, they've won 7, drawn 6 and lost 7, scoring 1.25 per game and conceding 1.3. Their recent form is mixed — a 2-0 win over Aldershot on 28 October was followed by a 3-1 loss at Harrogate on 24 October. Over their last 10 games, they've won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 1.5. Only 2 of their last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
The head-to-head is entirely historical. The two sides last met in January 2017, when both encounters ended 2-2 in the FA Trophy. With no meetings in the last 12 months, that record offers no current insight, so we lean on the form and venue numbers.
The counter-argument is that Sutton Utd have won three of their last five and their 2-0 win over Aldershot showed they can be clinical. Their away record does include 7 wins, and they've kept 6 clean sheets in 20 away games. But the gap in home and away records, and the quality of Worthing's recent output, make that a thin case.
Key Points:
- Worthing have won 12 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2 per game and conceding 0.95
- Sutton Utd have won only 7 of their last 20 away games, scoring 1.25 per game
- Worthing have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Sutton Utd failed to score in 1 of 5
- The head-to-head is 9 years old (two 2-2 draws in 2017) and offers no current form insight
- All 5 of Worthing's last 5 games went over 2.5; only 2 of Sutton Utd's last 5 did
The market prices Worthing at 1.78, implying a 56.18% chance. My read of the form, the home record and the away weakness points to a higher figure — I'd put Worthing's win probability around 60%. That's value at this price. I'm backing the Worthing home win.
