Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you — when I sat down with my beer to look at this one, the numbers just screamed at me. Worthing at home against Sutton Utd away, and the gap between those two records is the kind of thing that makes a man reach for his braai tongs before the match even kicks off.
Worthing have been cooking at home. Over 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 4 and lost 4, scoring 2 goals per game while conceding just 0.95. Ten of those 20 home games ended in a clean sheet, and only 2 saw them fail to score. That is a side that sits in their own backyard and makes visitors work for every inch. Their recent form backs it up: three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded. Five of those five games went over 2.5 goals, and in four of five both teams found the net. Yes, their last home game was a 3–3 draw with Southend on 27 October, but before that they were beating Solihull Moors 5–0 at home and winning 2–1 away at Gateshead.
Now, Sutton Utd. I respect the lads — they won 2–0 at home against Aldershot Town on 28 October, and they've picked up three wins from their last five. But their away record is where it gets uncomfortable. Across 20 away games, they've won 7, drawn 6 and lost 7, scoring 1.25 per game and conceding 1.3. Five of those 20 away games saw them score nothing at all. And just 7 days before this fixture, they lost 1–3 at Harrogate Town. Three of their last five matches went under 2.5 goals, and in three of five at least one team failed to score. They are not the team that comes to a ground and takes it apart.
The head-to-head is nine years old — two 2–2 draws in the FA Trophy in January 2017. That tells us nothing about how this will play out on 31 October. The real story is in the home and away records, and those point firmly to Worthing.
The counter-argument, if you want one, is that Worthing's most recent home game was a 3–3 draw and they did lose 1–2 to Ipswich Town U21 in the National League Cup two weeks ago. Sutton Utd have shown they can be clinical at home with that 2–0 over Aldershot. But those wins were on their own patch, and their away record simply doesn't support a strong showing here. The matchup table puts Worthing's home record at 12W 4D 4L with 2.0 points per game, against Sutton Utd's away record of 7W 6D 7L with 1.35 points per game. That is a clear edge.
Key Points:
- Worthing have won 12 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2 per game and conceding 0.95
- Sutton Utd have won just 7 of their last 20 away games, scoring 1.25 per game
- All five of Worthing's last matches went over 2.5 goals; three of Sutton's last five went under
- The head-to-head is 9 years old (two 2–2 draws in 2017) and offers no current insight
- Sutton Utd lost 1–3 away at Harrogate Town just 7 days before this fixture
My pick: Worthing home win.
