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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

Napoli vs Inter

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time3:1HT 1–0

Match Timeline

32'
H. Mkhitaryan🔄
Substitution 1 → P. Zielinski
33'
K. De Bruyne
Penalty
37'
K. De Bruyne🔄
Substitution 1 → M. Olivera
43'
Giovanni Di Lorenzo🟨
Yellow Card
45+6'
Billy Gilmour🟨
Yellow Card
54'
S. McTominay⚽
Normal Goal → L. Spinazzola
57'
Lautaro Martínez
Penalty confirmed
59'
H. Calhanoglu
Penalty
62'
A. Bonny🔄
Substitution 2 → F. Esposito
67'
F. Anguissa⚽
Normal Goal → David Neres
72'
H. Calhanoglu🔄
Substitution 3 → P. Sucic
73'
D. Dumfries🔄
Substitution 4 → Luis Henrique
73'
N. Barella🔄
Substitution 5 → D. Frattesi
77'
Alessandro Bastoni🟨
Yellow Card
81'
M. Politano🔄
Substitution 2 → E. Elmas
81'
David Neres🔄
Substitution 3 → N. Lang
90'
L. Spinazzola🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Gutierrez
90'
A. Buongiorno🔄
Substitution 5 → S. Beukema

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal3
1Shots off Goal9
7Total Shots15
3Blocked Shots3
4Shots insidebox9
3Shots outsidebox6
15Fouls10
1Corner Kicks4
1Offsides1
44Ball Possession56
2Yellow Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves0
422Total passes535
337Passes accurate462
80Passes %86
1.25expected_goals1.88
-1goals_prevented-1

Tipster previews (4)

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

A Clash of Titans: Napoli vs Inter

The pickBTTS No

Chance
60%
Odds
1.95
Model EV
+17.0%

In the grand theater of Serie A, two forces of equal points but different paths converge. Napoli, standing third with 15 points, and Inter, second with the same, meet in what the numbers suggest is more than just another game. Hmm, the form of these two teams tells different…

PajimonLost

Inter to Continue Dominant Form Against Napoli

The pickInter win

Chance
65%
Odds
2.38
Model EV
+54.7%

Right then, let's get down to business! This is a proper top-of-the-table clash in Serie A, but the form guide tells me everything I need to know here. Napoli might be sitting pretty in 3rd place with 15 points, but their recent form has been as shaky as a braai stand in a…

Value VinnyLost

Inter's Statistical Superiority Offers Clear Value

The pickInter win

Chance
65%
Odds
2.38
Model EV
+54.7%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. This match presents a classic value opportunity where the bookmakers have underestimated Inter's dominance. The league table shows both teams locked on 15 points, but that's where the similarity ends. Inter has been…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Napoli

6W 0D 4L1.80 pts/game

Inter

8W 0D 2L2.40 pts/game

Per game

Napoli at home vs Inter away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+56Inter
Venue edge
+41Inter
Rating period
Match snapshot
Napoli versus Inter: long term Elo, before the match
NapoliHomeRatingInterAway
Strength
1,738Overall1,793
1,721Match venue1,762
1,721At home1,779
1,699Away1,762
Attack & defence
1,580Attack1,676
1,674Defence1,676
1,592Home attack1,675
1,556Away attack1,652
1,634Home defence1,644
1,682Away defence1,703
Match profile
2,183Goal environment2,078
1,977Home goals1,860
1,707Away goals1,718
1,516Possession1,513
Specialist ratings
1,535Set-piece attack1,533
1,534Set-piece defence1,532
1,635Close games1,641
1,769Winning margin1,836

Match venue compares Napoli at home with Inter away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

NapoliNapoli1:1

Starting XI

32Vanja Milinković-SavićG
37Leonardo SpinazzolaD
6Billy GilmourM
8Scott McTominayM
7David NeresF
4Alessandro BuongiornoD
11Kevin De BruyneM
5Juan JesusD
99Frank AnguissaM
22Giovanni Di LorenzoD
21Matteo PolitanoM

InterInter1:1

Starting XI

1Yann SommerG
95Alessandro BastoniD
32Federico DimarcoM
10Lautaro MartínezF
15Francesco AcerbiD
22Henrikh MkhitaryanM
14Ange-Yoan BonnyF
25Manuel AkanjiD
20Hakan ÇalhanoğluM
23Nicolò BarellaM
2Denzel DumfriesM