Wexford vs UCD Prediction

Right, so we've got Wexford hosting UCD on 16 October in the First Division, and I'm telling you, this one's got goals written all over it. Let's get into it.

Wexford have been in a bit of a scrap lately. They drew 2–2 at Bray Wanderers on 9 October, drew 3–3 with Longford Town at home on 2 October, lost 0–1 at Kerry on 25 September, beat Cobh Ramblers 3–1 at home on 18 September, and lost 1–3 to Finn Harps at home on 11 September. That's one win, two draws and two losses in five, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of those five. Their defence is leaking – 10 goals conceded in five games, and they've scored 9. Two red cards for Wexford in that stretch, so the game's been a bit scrappy.

UCD have been in a similar position. They drew 1–1 with Longford Town at home on 9 October, smashed Treaty United 4–0 away on 2 October, lost 1–3 to Bray Wanderers at home on 25 September, lost 1–5 at Cork City away on 18 September, and drew 2–2 with Athlone Town at home on 11 September. Same record – one win, two draws, two losses. But here's the thing that catches my eye: UCD haven't failed to score in any of their last 10 games. Not one. They've put the ball in the net every single time, and in their last 10, BTTS has been yes in 9 of 10. That's a team that's scoring.

Now the head-to-head. Two months ago, UCD beat Wexford 4–1 at UCD's ground. On 22 May, Wexford beat UCD 2–1 at Wexford's ground. On 6 April, they drew 0–0 at UCD's ground. So at this venue – Wexford's ground – the only recent meeting was that 2–1 Wexford win back in May. The older meeting at Wexford's ground was a 0–3 UCD win, but that's historical and doesn't tell us much about where things are now.

The matchup numbers really tell the story. Over 20 home games, Wexford have had 11 of 20 go over 2.5 goals. Over 20 away games, UCD have had 13 of 20 go over 2.5. In their last 10 games, Wexford have had 6 over 2.5 and UCD have had 7. Both teams are scoring around 1.8 goals per game in their last five. Both are conceding around 2 per game. This is a two-way street, and the evidence keeps pointing the same direction.

BTTS has been yes in 4 of Wexford's last 5 and 4 of UCD's last 5. In the venue records, it's been yes in 11 of 20 at Wexford's ground and 13 of 20 at UCD's ground. Wexford have failed to score in only 3 of their last 10. The evidence is stacking up, and it's not subtle.

The counter-argument? Well, Wexford did win the last meeting at this ground, 2–1 in May. And their home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses – not terrible. UCD's away record is 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses, which is a bit softer. So there's a case that Wexford at home can grind out a low-scoring result. But the scoring numbers don't back a tight game. Both defences are open, both attacks are finding the net, and the recent meetings at both grounds have produced goals.

Key Points:

• Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 games

• UCD haven't failed to score in their last 10 games

• Wexford's home record: 11 of 20 over 2.5; UCD's away record: 13 of 20 over 2.5

• BTTS yes in 9 of UCD's last 10 and 4 of Wexford's last 5

• The last meeting at this venue went 2–1, with both teams scoring

My verdict: I'm going with both teams to score. The numbers don't lie – both sides are putting the ball in the net, and neither defence is keeping it out. At 1.45, this is the one I'm happy to put my money on. Grab your beer, mate, and let's watch the goals come in.