Necaxa vs Atlas Prediction

Right, so we've got Necaxa hosting Atlas in Liga MX on 17 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a story to tell.

Let's start with the obvious: both these lads are scoring. Atlas have put the ball in the net in all five of their last five matches - a 1-1 with Chivas at home, a 3-2 win at Tijuana, a 1-1 with Pumas, a 2-5 loss to Toluca, and a 1-1 with Atlante. Five out of five, no exceptions. Over their last ten games, they've scored in nine of ten.

Necaxa? Four out of their last five. The only time they went blank was that 0-1 loss to Puebla at home on 12 September. Before that, they were scoring in every game - 3 at Pachuca, 2 against Club America, 1 at San Luis, 1 at Tigres. Over ten games, they've scored in nine.

Now look at the head-to-head. In 22 meetings going back to 2016, both teams have scored in 12 of those. And in the three recent meetings within the last year - the 0-0 at Atlas in July, the 0-1 at Necaxa in January, and the 5-3 at Atlas in December - both sides found the net in just one of those three.

The home and away records back it up too. Over 20 home games, Necaxa have seen both teams score in 10. Over 20 away games, Atlas have had both teams score in 9. It's just the nature of these two sides - they open up, they score, and they concede.

Now, the counter-argument. Atlas did lose 2-5 to Toluca on 12 September, and they've drawn their last two home games. Necaxa's home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses - not a great record by any stretch. And that 0-0 at Atlas in July showed these two can go quiet. But that's one game in a long run of open football.

The xG numbers add a bit of colour. Necaxa have been expected to concede about 1.29 per game over their last four matches with xG data, but they've actually let in 9 - that's a leaky back line. Atlas have been expected to concede 1.93 per game but have only actually conceded 5, so they've been better than the numbers suggest defensively. That said, both teams are creating enough to find a goal.

Key Points:

• Atlas have scored in all 5 of their last 5 games; Necaxa in 4 of 5

• Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 games each

• In 22 head-to-head meetings, both teams have scored in 12

• Necaxa's home record (20 games) sees both teams score in 10; Atlas's away record (20 games) sees it in 9

• The 0-0 at Atlas in July is the only recent meeting where neither side found the net

So here's my take. The price on both teams to score is 1.62, and the market is pricing it at about 62%. I'd put my money on this happening around 70% of the time. That's a nice little edge, and the evidence is consistent across every timeframe I've looked at. Both these sides are scoring, both are conceding, and the head-to-head says the same thing.

My tip: both teams to score.