Aberdeen vs ST Mirren Prediction

Right, so we've got Aberdeen hosting ST Mirren on 17 October, and I'll be honest with you — this one's got me reaching for the braai before the beer. ST Mirren have been absolutely cooked, and I mean that in the football sense, not the shisa-nyama sense.

Let me paint the picture. ST Mirren have lost their last four games, and the numbers don't lie: one goal scored, eleven conceded. They were thumped 0–5 by Hearts on 10 October, lost 0–3 to Dundee at home on 19 September, and before that, 0–1 at Rangers and 1–2 to Celtic. Four in a row, and the only goal that came out of that stretch was the one in the 1–2 loss to Celtic at home. That's a team that has lost the plot, mate.

Now look at Aberdeen's home record over 20 games: 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses. They're averaging 1.55 goals a game at home and conceding just 0.9. ST Mirren's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses, conceding 1.5 a game. The gap is there, and it's not small.

The head-to-head at this ground gives me a slight pause. ST Mirren won 0–2 here on 12 May, and the two sides drew 3–3 on 3 December. So Aberdeen's record at this specific venue against ST Mirren is 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss. That's a concern, but it's only two meetings, and the most recent one was five months ago when ST Mirren were clearly in a different place. Since then, ST Mirren's form has gone from competitive to what-on-earth-is-happening.

Aberdeen's own recent form is a bit mixed — they lost 0–1 to ST Johnstone at home on 11 October, but before that they were winning 4–1 at Dunfermline and 4–0 at Motherwell. Two wins, two draws, one loss in the last five. Not perfect, but not a team in freefall either.

The counter-argument I have to acknowledge: the head-to-head at this ground hasn't gone Aberdeen's way. The 0–2 scoreline in May showed ST Mirren could win here. And Aberdeen's xG numbers in recent games have been quiet — 0.78 per game across three matches with data. So there's a real question of whether Aberdeen's attack will find the gear on the day.

But here's the thing: ST Mirren's current form is the most telling evidence in this fixture. Four straight losses, one goal, eleven conceded. Their away record over 20 games is the weaker of the two. And the market has Aberdeen at 1.87, which implies about 53.48%. My own read, factoring in the form gap and the home record, puts Aberdeen's chance a touch above that — I'd say around 56%. The price is there, the evidence supports it, and ST Mirren's recent collapse is hard to ignore.

Key Points:

• ST Mirren have lost their last four games, scoring just 1 and conceding 11

• Aberdeen's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, averaging 0.9 conceded per game

• ST Mirren's away record: 7W 5D 8L in 20 games, averaging 1.5 conceded per game

• H2H at Aberdeen's ground: 0W 1D 1L for Aberdeen (ST Mirren won 0–2 in May)

• Aberdeen's last five: 2W 2D 1L, including a 4–0 win at Motherwell

Verdict: I'm going with the Aberdeen home win.