Preview
The force is strong with Bayer Leverkusen at home, you see. Four wins in a row, 12 goals scored and just 3 conceded across those last four matches. The 4–0 demolition of Lech Poznan on 15 October, the 4–3 thriller against FSV Mainz 05 on 10 October, and the two 2–0 home victories over RB Leipzig and Celje in September — all of it points to a side that is in rhythm and hungry.
At their own ground, the numbers speak with a calm authority. Over the last 20 home games, Bayer Leverkusen have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 3, scoring 2.2 goals per game while conceding just 0.85. Ten of those 20 home matches ended in a clean sheet. That is a record that does not shout; it simply is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, arrive with their own momentum. Three wins in a row, 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five. The 5–0 over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September, the 4–2 against FC Luzern on 3 October, and the 3–2 over FK Jablonec on 15 October show a side scoring with confidence. Their latest 10 games carry 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 3.3 goals scored per game.
But here is the thing, young one: form at home and form on the road are two different stories. Over the last 20 away games, SC Freiburg have won 7, drawn 4 and lost 9. Their points per game away is 1.25, they score 1.35 per game and concede 1.55. Only 3 of those 20 away matches ended in a clean sheet. The road is a harder place for Freiburg to find their rhythm.
The head-to-head at this venue in the recent period tells a simple story. On 26 October 2025, Bayer Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 2–0 at their own ground. The most recent meeting overall, on 7 March 2026 at Freiburg's ground, ended 3–3. The older meetings — a 5–1 at Leverkusen's ground, a 2–2 and a 2–3 at Freiburg's — are historical record and do not carry the weight of current form.
The counter-argument, and I must honour it, is this: Freiburg's recent form is genuinely strong. Nine wins in ten games is not something to dismiss. The 3–3 draw in March showed that Freiburg can compete at this level. And both teams' latest 10 games show high scoring — 8 of Leverkusen's last 10 went over 2.5 goals, and 9 of Freiburg's last 10 did the same. A 3–3 or 2–2 is not out of the question.
Yet the weight of evidence leans one way. Leverkusen's home record is the strongest single factor here. Freiburg's away record is the weakest. The recent meeting at this ground was a Leverkusen win. The current run favours the hosts. The market prices Bayer Leverkusen at 1.76, implying a 56.82% chance. My reading of the form, the venue record and the head-to-head puts the hosts' likelihood a touch above that figure — the home side is the wiser pick.
Key Points:
- Bayer Leverkusen have won their last 4 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 3
- Leverkusen's home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.2 scored, 0.85 conceded per game
- SC Freiburg's away record: 7W 4D 9L in 20 games, 1.35 scored, 1.55 conceded per game
- Recent H2H at Leverkusen's ground: 2–0 Bayer Leverkusen win (26 October 2025)
- Freiburg's latest 10: 9W 1D 0L, but that includes home games and friendlies
The wise path, the path that the numbers walk, is the home win. Bayer Leverkusen to win.
